FXUS64 KHGX 300539 AAA
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT WAS THROUGH KCLL AT 03Z. IT WAS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
FORECAST AND WILL ONLY MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ALONG A KLFK-KCXO-KVCT LINE THIS HOUR. THE FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS AND SHOULD PASS HOUSTON AREA TERMINALS BY
08Z AND PASS THROUGH KGLS AROUND 09-10Z. NARROW BAND OF
+SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT. EXPECT VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO 1-2SM...CEILINGS DOWN TO 500 FT AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH FROPA 10-20 KTS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BUT ONLY TO MVFR LEVEL A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FROPA. POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN WILL LAST 3-4
HRS FOLLOWING FROPA. PRECIP SHOULD END MOST LOCATIONS BY 10-11Z AND
ALONG THE COAST BY 13Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR LEVEL
FOR HOUSTON TERMINALS TO THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO MVFR LEVEL AGAIN MON NIGHT FOR HOUSTON TERMINALS AND THE
COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z THESE AREAS WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
AND SPREADING INLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE WACO AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
FRONT AND AN ACCOMPANYING 10 TO 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS
STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST MEXICO MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1
INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE POSSIBLY
RECEIVING 2 TO 3 INCHES. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER NIGHTS
AND MILDER DAYS UNDER ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A WARM UP.
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECT INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
42
AVIATION...
VFR CIGS TODAY WITH CLOUD DECK 4000 TO 5000 FEET. WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AT
THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY.
46
MARINE...
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE SOUTHEAST WIND WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 4 TO
5 FOOT RANGE. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST AND
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHEAST...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP. SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING
NORTH...THEN NORTHWEST. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH LOW
DEEPENS AND HOW QUICKLY IT PULLS AWAY...BUT WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED FLAGS FOR THAT PERIOD.
SOME CONCERN FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL...BUT AGAIN
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE GULF LOW
DEVELOPMENT. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO GIVE AN EXTRA
HEADS UP FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 56 43 50 41 / 90 60 40 70 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 57 47 52 42 / 90 80 50 70 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 60 53 53 47 / 90 90 60 70 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...35
