FXUS63 KOAX 280903
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE 
UPPER AIR FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SPLIT FLOW 
REGIME UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS 
THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY DIGGING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS...WHILE UPPER LOW GETS CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
MONDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY. 
THE SOUTHWEST LOW IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE...MOVING 
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MERGING 
WITH GREAT LAKES TROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING 
RESULTANT TROUGH...WITH ECMWF HOLDING ON TO MEAN POSITION OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH 
NORTHEAST. SO TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY 
DEPENDING ON WHICH PATTERN TAKES HOLD.

IN THE MEAN TIME...OUR CWA WILL EXPERIENCE A TYPICAL LATE FALL/EARLY 
WINTER ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS AS TEMPERATURES SURGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES TODAY AND 
TUESDAY...AND PLUNGE BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S AS PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE COMBINES WITH DECENT MIXING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN 
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT COLDER PUSH WILL HOLD 
OFF UNTIL TONIGHT KEEPING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 40S.

NOT MUCH OF A REBOUND MONDAY DESPITE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS 
TEMPERATURES START THE DAY IN THE 20S. HAVE HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 40S...WITH MORE MILD MID 50S EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS IN THE 8C RANGE TUESDAY 
BEFORE DROPPING IN MINUS 8C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 
MAY NOT TOP 40...WITH TEENS LOWS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING. 

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK APPEAR TO BE 
MINIMAL WITH MOISTURE LIMITED AND MAIN FORCING REMAINING TO OUR 
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES 
WITH ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 

28/06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR 12KTS. MID LEVEL CIGS BETWEEN FL050-100 WILL LIKELY
ROLL SOUTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DERGAN