FXUS63 KEAX 021721
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1121 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO RACE THROUGH MISSOURI AND WAS NOW ENTERING
THE SERN CWA. THE COOLER AIR LAGGED BEHIND IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
OTHERWISE...MOIST IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CNTRL TX
MOVING EAST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALOFT STRETCHED FM
SERN KS TO THE SWRN KC METRO. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND
OF WEAK TO MODERATE H7-H5 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND MAY
PROVIDE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THE FORCING GRADUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWFA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A COLD VORTEX WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DROP INTO THE UPR MISS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MISSOURI AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES ACR NRN MO ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD STRATOCU DECK WRAPS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BKN MVFR STRATO-CU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AN
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL SUNSHINE...THIS MVFR DECK SHOULD MIX UP TO VFR
LVLS BY MID-AFTN. OTHERWISE...STRONG SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RATHER TIGHT INTO THE EVE...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX LATE
THIS EVE AS UPR LVL LOW TO OUR SOUTH MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...A STIFF NNW WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH SHOULD
STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ONLY MINOR CONCERNS ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BY
LATE MORNING THE PROBABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU WILL
BE INCREASING.
31
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
