FXUS64 KOUN 042306
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
506 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK BY
MID MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORTER TERM... THE COLD SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BROUGHT
WINTER BACK TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...
BUT CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR PROMISE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET AGAIN... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS FAR AS LAST
NIGHT IN THE WEST.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TOMORROW... BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES... BUT THE WIND
WILL MAKE IT FEEL ALMOST AS COLD AS TODAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AT TIMES FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... AS A WEAK WAVE AND MEAGER MOISTURE
RETURN AFFECT OUR AREA. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE NO SOURCE FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT... SO FREEZING DRIZZLE
APPEARS MORE LIKELY... IF PRECIPITATION FORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE.
THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY... AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN... THE DGEX APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST
REASONABLE SURFACE SOLUTION... SO THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE FOLLOWED
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY... AS
MODEL VARIABILITY IS QUITE WIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK... BUT THEY
GENERALLY DO NOT STRAY ALL THAT FAR FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 21 45 31 43 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 21 48 30 45 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 23 53 35 54 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 14 45 21 34 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 21 45 28 38 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 22 51 37 48 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/23
