FXUS65 KGJT 101105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MST THU DEC 10 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AS THE STRONG JET ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA EXITS THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED JET OVER THE NORTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORIES WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TRACKS EAST. LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW
IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. THE BROAD UPPER
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY SHIFTING THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AWAY FROM EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
WARM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN
THE VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LOCALIZED FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN LOW AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A PAC DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CA
LATER FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY INCREASE. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS THE WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THE MOISTURE DEEPENS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT THEREFORE EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS FIRST PAC WAVE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BUSY WEEKEND EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS SHRTWV ENERGY LINES UP IN
FAST WESTERLY FLOW. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE IN WAA WILL SETTLE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED...
FOCUSING ON THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS. SOME VALLEY SHOWERS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. BRIEF DOWN PERIODS
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
WAVE...WHICH ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PACKING A LITTLE
BETTER PUNCH. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY CLIMB TO OVER 4 G/KG SO MOISTURE
WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL FOR
SOME AREAS. TROUGH AXIS PASSES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING ENTRENCHED AND SHIFTS FOCUS OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL TO OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. RIDGING ARRIVES ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS IS EXPECTED AS EACH PASSING WAVE HELPS TO
MIX THINGS UP A LITTLE MORE...BUT DEEPER SNOWPACK OVER THE LOWER
VALLEYS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
PATCHY FOG WILL OCCASIONAL RESTRICT CIGS AND VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AIRPORTS BLANKETED IN SNOW COVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM....JDC
AVIATION.....TGJT