FXUS63 KOAX 302100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FROM CANADA AND LINGERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CLOUDY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT SEEM MORE LIKE WINTER.
NO SNOW EXPECTED OTHER THAN FLURRIES AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN WAVE GETS PICKED UP BY
NORTHERN WAVE ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SETTING
UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND ALL 
SEEM TO ADVERTISE A COLD PERIOD FOR THE EXTENDED. DISAGREEMENT 
THOUGH IS SIG FOR DAY 7 AND JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE 
AGAIN MAIN UNCERTAINTY TODAY IS WITH DEVELOPING ERN PAC RIDGE AND 
THE EFFECTS DOWNSTREAM. FOR THIS FORECAST PREFER A BLEND OF THE 
CANADIAN AND NAEFS FOR THE EXTENDED. THE EC AGAIN WAS NOT USED AT IT 
APPEARS TO SLOW AND DEVELOPS /AT LEAST IN THE 12Z 30 NOV RUN/ THE 
CLOSED LOW TO FAR WEST INTO THE ERN PAC. GFS AGAIN APPEARS TO FAST 
IN BRINGING OUT A CLOSED LOW THRU THE PLAINS AND THUS THE 
OPERATIONAL RUN WAS NOT USED EITHER. 

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE NRN PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD WITH 
SIG SC IN CYCLONIC FLOW SHLD CONT INTO THURS NIGHT. MAY SEE THE 
FLURRIES CONT FOR THURS NIGHT AND INTO FRI...BUT WL NOT INCLUDE A 
TRACE EVENT THIS FAR OUT. DID COOL TMPS FOR THURS NIGHT AND FRI 
GIVEN THE THICKNESS AND H85 TMPS ON THE WAY...BUT AGAIN THIS COLD 
WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACRS ALL OF THE PLAINS FM 
HERE NORTH. COLD WEATHER THEN CONTS INTO FRI DESPITE A SHRTWV WV 
FLAT RIDGE DVLPG ACRS THE PLAINS. AT ERN PAC RIDGE AMPLIFIES THRU 
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHT FALLS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE PAC NW STARTING 
ON SAT AND CONTG INTO SUN. FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL ACRS THE 
PLAINS AND THIS SHLD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LVL CLDS...BUT 
WL LIKELY BE PRECIP FREE THRU THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED...SIG 
DISAGREEMENT IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AND 
ATTM WL GO DRY ON MON AND CONTD COLD. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THERE 
STILL APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SHOT AT AT LEAST A -SN EVENT DUE TO THE 
STG THERMAL GRADIENT ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPSTREAM TROF OR THE W AT 
SOME POINT TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED OR BEYOND. CONFIDENCE ATTM 
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE POPS ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT 
WL CONT TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER FORECASTS. IF THE CLOSED LO IN 
THE W OVR THE WEEKEND RETROGRADES ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK A REX BLOCK 
CLD DVLP WITH LITTLE PRECIP FOR OUR AREA.  

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 

30/18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY PASSING 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO 
EVENING HOURS WITH WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 12KTS.  SOME
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KOMA AND KLNK AREAS FROM 01/08Z THRU
THE REMAINING FCST PD UP TO 1200 FT FROM 240 DEGREES AT APPROX. 40 
KTS. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT/BOUSTEAD/REESE