FXUS64 KMEG 260321 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
921 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS...CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 30S...THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND COLD AIR DRAINAGE. SAVANNAH TN AND PORTIONS OF THE
MS DELTA HAD ALREADY COOLED TO THE MID 30S AT 9 PM...WHILE
JONESBORO CAME IN WITH A 50 DEGREE READING.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CENTERED
OVER IA...WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF OVER KS/OK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDED ROUGHLY ALONG AND PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 44 OVER KS/MO.
THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY...POST FRONTAL EARLY MORNING TEMPS MAY NOT BE AS COLD
AS THE PREFRONTAL MIDEVENING TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS. OTHER AREAS...
SUCH AS MEMPHIS...WILL SEE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE
OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REDUCE FIRST PERIOD
CLOUDS. SECOND EVENING UPDATE WAS ISSUED WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURE NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MIDSOUTH EXPERIENCED SUNNY SKIES AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 60
DEGREES. WINDS WERE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE. CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE LOWER 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
COMMENCE SATURDAY AND HELP TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER-RIDING THE COOL SURFACE AIR. PRECIPITATION
WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS IS THE MUCH WETTER SOLUTION. SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO SEE WHAT THE EVOLUTION WILL
BE. STAY TUNED.
AC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS OF TAF ISSUANCE. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 11 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS AFTER 26/14Z. EXPECTING CLOUDS AROUND 3500
FT TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/14Z FOR MKL AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 37 53 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 32 50 30 51 / 0 10 0 0
JBR 32 51 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 33 53 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
