FXUS63 KTOP 290950
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THE TROUGH SHEARS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXITING FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST CWA WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING OFF IN ITS
WAKE. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...00Z SOUNDINGS
...SFC OBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY MID LEVELS PERSISTING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TIME OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THEREFORE
FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA TODAY IS
LOW AND HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...STILL
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE COULD STILL OCCUR EARLY
TODAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WITHIN STRATUS DECK NOW
DEVELOPING...BUT CHANCES OF THIS LOOK REMOTE AS WELL AND IT WOULD BE
A TRACE EVENT AT BEST. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST.
WITH THE STRONG CAA NORTHWEST CWA AND THICKER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST
CWA...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA.
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
SURFACE WINDS COME AROUND TO A MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT DRY WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
AREA REMAINS IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES. EXPECTING NORTH WINDS
TO CONTINUE AT TOP AND FOE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL LAYER RH PROGS SHOW MOISTENING OF
LOW LAYERS OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO FORM
THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. VFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER MID DAY SUNDAY. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
EXPECTED AFTER 22Z. NORTH WINDS AROUND 14 KTS EXPECTED FORM MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
