FXUS63 KIND 271731
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN AT MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME VFR. THE THICKEST BAND OF CLOUDS IS
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LAFAYETTE TO BLOOMINGTON...BUT TERRE
HAUTE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF CLEARING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHER THAN THAT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THEY WILL NOT BE A FACTOR THOUGH WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND10K TS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START
INCREASING LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009/ 

UPDATE...IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL 
ILLINOIS AND DRIVING EAST. EXPECT LINGERING STRATUS TO BEGIN TO 
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. ONGOING 
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND HAVE ONLY TWEAKED THE SKY GRIDS TO 
ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
SUNDAY.

AT 06Z SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND A LITTLE SNOW TO THE AREA
WAS EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN TO
ILLINOIS AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS RUN. WILL USE A BLEND.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALREADY ARRIVED THERE. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLEARING
LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS HAS SLOWED A LITTLE. GIVEN ALL OF THIS FEEL
THAT BULK OF AREA WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS MAY TAKE
TIL MID AFTERNOON. MAV AND MET ARE CLOSE AT MOST SITES FOR HIGHS
SO USED A BLEND MOST AREAS. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WENT COOLER
THAN MAV BUT NOT AS COLD AS MET.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT ARE SIMILAR
AND LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE PASSING MID CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT FORCING ON SUNDAY WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT A COUPLED UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASE THE FORCING. CURRENT LOCATION OF BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SO WILL GO HIGHEST POPS THERE. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT FAR SOUTHERN AREA WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE
FOR RAIN...SO UPPED POPS THERE TO LIKELY. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS
WERE USED.

MODELS NOW INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THUS REMOVED OR CUT BACK POPS AS NECESSARY FOR
MONDAY. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CS
AVIATION...TDUD
UPDATE...JP