FXUS64 KOUN 150523
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...WHEN THE PRESSURE RIDGE
FINALLY BUILDS THIS FAR TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 12 OR 15 KNOTS AT MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO
SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...WITH MOTION TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A THIN BUT NEARLY SATURATED LAYER OF AIR WITHIN THE SHALLOW
ARCTIC FRONTAL INVERSION...AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
FOR A FEW HOURS AT KWWR AND KGAG. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND THE MODELS
TEND TO DO WELL WHEN COLD ADVECTION IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
INFLUENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
BAND OF ECHOES APPROACHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME
FORCING WILL OCCUR...AS FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 700MB SLIDES THROUGH
OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. VERY DRY AIR AND BRISK
WINDS BENEATH THAT LEVEL...HOWEVER...SHOULD EVAPORATE THE WOULD-BE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES GROUND. WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.
OF GREATER CONCERN ARE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAD ALREADY
DROPPED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM INTERSTATE 40
NORTHWARD. WE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TOWARD MET MOS WINDS...WHICH
WERE PERFORMING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM SURFACE WINDS. BUT
EVEN WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT IS STILL
LIKELY THAT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEEDS WILL OFFSET WITH THE SLOWLY
FALLING AIR TEMPERATURE...TO KEEP WIND CHILLS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF ZERO. THIS IS NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTIONARY WORDING IN OTHER PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE
SHORT TERM FORECASTS AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 19 36 25 47 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 23 40 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 25 42 26 51 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 14 35 19 51 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 11 32 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 25 41 28 50 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32/22/22
