FXUS65 KABQ 252202
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALES ARE
READING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER...AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS SAGGED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER NEW MEXICO...BUT MORE DENSE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS NOTED OVER THE BAJA EASTWARD ONTO THE
MEXICAN MAINLAND WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING.
THIS CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE UPPER ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WITH TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. MORE OF THE SAME
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ANOTHER 3 TO 5
DEGREES AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENING ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR
SOME MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE.
NOW FOR THE MORE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WATERS WILL BE SWINGING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NEW MEXICO. MANY FORECAST MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE SATURDAY
TO MONDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE ECMWF MODEL HAS HELD A DECENT SENSE
OF CONTINUITY...ALTHOUGH A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN MOST
OTHER MEMBERS. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
STORM...ROUGHLY AT 550 DAM...WILL BE SWINGING BETWEEN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOOT HEEL OF NM AND THE UPPER GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY TRACK LIKE THIS WOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO TAP
INTO SOME SUBSTANTIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WOULD SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVER MUCH OF THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. A STRONG EASTERN PLAINS COLD FRONT WOULD ALSO ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND RELATIVELY LOW THICKNESS VALUES
ACROSS THE STATE WOULD HELP GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN
MANY AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EVEN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FINER DETAILS ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
AT THIS TIME OF COURSE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATE SUNDAY ON INTO MONDAY AS THE BULLS EYE OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE STATE. COLD AIR WOULD
TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT
DIRECTIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NEW MEXICO ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ASIDE FROM SOME DAYTIME TURBULENCE...NO AVIATION
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT NUDGED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY WILL WASHOUT ON THANKSGIVING AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF IMPROVING
VENTILATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN OVER NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. MODELS DISAGREE SOME ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT GENERALLY DO AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE WEST STARTING SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS DIVE THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NM AS
IT PASSES AND THIS COULD CAUSE PRECIP TO FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 IF THAT TRACK MANIFESTS. REGARDLESS...MUCH COLDER
WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GAP WINDS MAY DEVELOP
BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY...BUT ITS NOT CLEAR YET WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 15 55 17 55 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 7 55 9 56 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 9 55 10 55 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 8 57 10 56 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 12 56 13 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 9 56 10 58 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 14 58 15 58 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 23 65 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 10 53 12 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 24 54 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 20 56 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 13 54 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 6 48 9 49 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 6 50 9 50 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 8 54 9 55 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 11 58 15 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 17 53 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 19 55 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 25 54 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 56 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 57 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 20 57 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 13 58 15 61 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 20 56 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 19 60 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 11 55 14 56 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 8 58 12 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 21 56 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 21 59 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 26 60 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 21 57 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 15 60 19 63 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 12 62 21 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 12 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 28 66 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 16 61 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 21 66 28 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 20 66 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 22 66 29 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 29 63 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 24 63 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 21 65 26 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 23 63 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 20 65 25 70 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 24 60 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52/44
