FXUS64 KTSA 142319
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER TONIGHT AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. HAVE GONE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO
THE MET GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET AND
THE ECMWF.
AFTER A RATHER CHILLY DAY ON TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND
WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WITH
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME. SOME OF THE PRECIP
COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 20 38 20 51 / 10 10 0 10
FSM 26 46 26 55 / 10 10 0 10
MLC 24 43 22 55 / 10 10 0 10
BVO 15 35 15 50 / 10 10 0 10
FYV 20 40 20 53 / 10 10 0 10
BYV 19 38 18 51 / 10 10 0 10
MKO 20 41 21 51 / 10 10 0 10
MIO 17 34 19 51 / 10 10 0 10
F10 21 40 20 52 / 10 10 0 10
HHW 29 46 27 54 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
