FXUS66 KHNX 072250
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PST MON DEC 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE SAN 
JOAQUIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM 
WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE LEMOORE-HANFORD-VISALIA AREA AROUND 
20Z /NOON/ TODAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES AROUND 9 DEGREES FROM THIS 
MORNING AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVED INTO THE REGION. AT 
21Z...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES WERE 
RUNNING AS MUCH AS 21Z SUNDAY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEARING SKIES 
IN THE DRYING AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.AS CLEARING SPREADS 
INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES. IF THERE 
IS NO WIND...TEMPERATURES COULD COOL TO SATURATION WITH SOME FOG 
DEVELOPMENT. IF THERE IS A LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD 
DROP LOWS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 20S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. A 
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN 
VALLEY FROM 08-17Z TUESDAY.

WEBCAMS INDICATE SNOW IS CONTINUING TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA 
NEVADA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THIS 
EVENING...SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH NEW ACCUMULATIONS 
ON THE TEHACHAPI AND TEJON PASSES. DUE TO THE IMPACT ON TRAVEL ON 
INTERSTATE 5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE AND ON HIGHWAY 58...WILL KEEP THE 
WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY BETWEEN 
TROUGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY 
NIGHT WITH SEVERAL VALLEY LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING A DEGREE OR TWO 
COOLER THAN TUESDAY. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 06-17Z 
WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT STORM IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A WARMER SYSTEM THAN TODAY/S AND
ALL THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS KEEP 850-MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0 C. THIS 
WILL KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4500-5500 FEET. MODEL QPF FOR THIS 
SYSTEM IS UP TO 0.40 INCH FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTH VALLEY AND UP TO AN 
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE AGAIN FORECASTING THE THIRD STORM TO BE 
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...WITH QPF/S SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S STORM. THERE 
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS STORM...AND THE 
BREAK BETWEEN THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS COULD BE MINIMAL...OR EVEN 
NON-EXISTENT IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

FORECASTED AND RECORD LOWS FOR BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO...

                   BAKERSFIELD          FRESNO
                   FCST   RECORD        FCST   RECORD

DECEMBER  8TH       31    24 IN 1903     30    25 IN 1978

DECEMBER  9TH       30    24 IN 1923     30    23 IN 1972

DECEMBER 10TH       38    24 IN 1923     37    26 IN 1951

DATES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO...
/AMOUNTS IN INCHES/

BAKERSFIELD                    FRESNO

DECEMBER 11 1932...4.0         JANUARY 12 1930....2.5
JANUARY 25 1999....3.0         JANUARY 22 1962....1.5
MARCH 17 1922......2.5         DECEMBER 28 1911...1.5
MARCH 8 1974.......1.5         DECEMBER 20 1968...1.2
                               JANUARY 21 1962....0.7
                               JANUARY 1 1910.....0.6
                               DECEMBER 20 1998...0.5
                               JANUARY 1 1916.....0.5
                               MARCH 23 1929......0.2
                               JANUARY 10 1916....0.2
                               DECEMBER 24 1916...0.1
                               MARCH 23 1916......0.1

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FROM NORTH TO 
SOUTH 00Z-06Z EXCEPT FOR PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SOUTH END 
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. 
MOUNTAINS...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY...THEN MVFR 
CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. 
DESERTS...MVFR IN RAIN THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR 
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS /CAZ098-099/. 

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR THE FOOTHILLS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS /CAZ093>097/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MENDENHALL
SYNOPSIS...MENDENHALL

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD