FXUS63 KICT 060415
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.UPDATE...
TONIGHT:
PREVAILING S/SE WINDS ~10MPH COUPLED WITH THICKENING OVERCAST HAVE
DICTATED LOWS IN MOST AREAS ~3F. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST KEPT
INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE TERMINAL CONTINUING TO DRAW THE MOST ATTENTION IS KRSL TOWARD
WHICH A SE-SAGGING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH. AT 9 PM CST
THE FRONT CURVED FROM ~KLNK SW TO ~KHLC TO JUST S OF KGLD. STILL
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING IN A SW-NE MANNER FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
THROUGH CNTRL KS TO EXTREME NW MO AS THE "LEAD" MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
SHEARS WHILE SPRINTING NE ACROSS KS. AS SUCH NOW BELIEVE THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL NOT REACH KRSL TIL BETWEEN 06/12Z & 06/15Z WHEN MOIST
UPSLOPE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY. THE BEHAVIOR OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THRU SUN AFTERNOON
AS IT'S SE PROGRESS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING E ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CORRECTED...
THE TERMINAL DRAWING THE MOST ATTENTION THIS EVENING IS KRSL WHERE
A COLD FRONT...BEING DRAGGED SE BY THE 1ST OF SEVERAL MID-LVL
SHORTWAVES EJECTING E OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SHOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT. AS THE MID-LVL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD INDUCE THE LWR-DECK FLOW TO BECOME NELY
RESULTING IN INCREASED MOIST UPSLOPE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
WRN PLAINS. TRANSLATION: CIGS OVER KRSL SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY
INTO MVFR CATEGORY (TO ~1,500FT) BETWEEN 06/09Z & 06/11Z. WITH THE
SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN AM MORE OPTIMISTIC THAT THE REMAINING 4
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH MID-LATE SUN AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES OVER CENTRAL
KS SUNDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY CONTINUING TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS NOW AT THE BASE OF THIS POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) ANOMALY.
AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD START TO SEE THIS WAVE SHIFT EAST INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WE
WILL SEE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 280-295K
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BULK OF THIS
LIFT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LOW LEVEL TROF
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW LEVEL TROF MAY MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS
DURING THE NEXT 24HRS AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO OOZE BACK INTO
THE AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST THIS LOW LEVEL TROF WILL SAG SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP CAMP WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE INTERACTS
WITH IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHEN IT DOES SETUP CAMP. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE
18Z NAM SOLUTION ON THE POSITION OF THE PV ANOMALY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF. AT THIS POINT...WE FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN CENTRAL KANSAS SINCE IT
APPEARS LIKE THEY WILL BE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S TOMORROW. WE ARE
THINKING THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
DURING THE MORNING STARTING AFTER DAYBREAK WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS.
AHEAD OF THIS TROF OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SEEDER FEEDER
EFFECTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT:
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AS THE PV ANOMALY MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THE TROF MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
THIS PERIOD IS POTENTIALLY THE MOST INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO
CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH...FURTHER DIGGING THE CURRENT WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO KICK EAST...IN RESPONSE TO
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF ALASKA/WESTERN CANADA.
THE MODELS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART HANDLED THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND ARE NOW IN
DECENT ALIGNMENT REGARDING TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
MID/UPPER FEATURES. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PAST 3-4 MODEL RUNS...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH GFS SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. FARTHER NORTH LOW
PLACEMENTS ALSO AGREE WITH THE NAM AND SREF MODELS. THAT
SAID...THINKING THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO ZERO IN ON A FARTHER
NORTH SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE GREATEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND POINTS NORTH...TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. STILL
NOT CONVINCED CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND THE TROUGH
BEING OF A PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE VARIANT. HOWEVER...CURRENT AND
PAST MODEL RUNS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A STRONG ADVISORY
EVENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS
TIME.
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH IT CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. ONE THINGS FOR
SURE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AND NORTH WINDS WILL BE STRONG
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR POTENTIALLY BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS.
ALL-IN-ALL...STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THIS STORM SYSTEM...SO
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS...AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES...ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
THIS PERIOD WILL CALM DOWN PRECIPITATION WISE...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
ANOTHER THING. THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLDEST THAT WE HAVE SEEN YET
THIS SEASON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. HAVE BROKEN THE
TREND A LITTLE BIT AS OF LATE AND GONE WITH MORE OF A GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE BLEND OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF. THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
12Z GFS AND GIVES MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND ALLOWS EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS IF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COVERS THE GROUND AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION RULES. THIS OF COURSE ALL DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE
STORM SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT FEEL THESE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF THE GROUND IS COVERED IN SNOW.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THINGS WILL WARM SOME...BUT NOT
OVERWHELMINGLY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 40 DEGREES WITH
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS AND CONTINUED REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
REC/ADK/BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 30 39 22 32 / 10 40 50 10
HUTCHINSON 27 33 20 29 / 10 50 30 10
NEWTON 29 38 21 31 / 10 50 50 10
ELDORADO 30 41 20 33 / 10 40 50 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 32 43 23 35 / 10 30 50 0
RUSSELL 24 27 16 25 / 10 80 20 10
GREAT BEND 26 29 16 26 / 10 70 20 10
SALINA 26 34 18 27 / 10 70 30 10
MCPHERSON 27 35 19 29 / 10 60 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 28 43 24 38 / 10 30 40 0
CHANUTE 29 40 22 35 / 10 30 40 0
IOLA 29 39 22 34 / 10 30 50 0
PARSONS-KPPF 29 42 22 37 / 10 30 40 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-
033-047-048-050.
&&
$$
