FXUS63 KFGF 220936
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VERY LITTLE OF CONCERN. SOME LIGHT SNOW
THAT WAS OVER CNTRL ND IS MOVING EAST BUT DRYING UP AS IT MOVES
INTO ERN ND. OVERALL...SEEING INCREASE IN 850-700 MB MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. HAVE REMOVED THE VERY
LOW POPS WE HAD GOING FOR TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 2C
TODAY SO LOOK FOR A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FCST IS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. 00Z
MODEL RUNS ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT NOW AND HAVE SHIFTED TO A
BIT MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE
FROM WRN OKLAHOMA TO THE KANSAS CITY AREA ON THURSDAY WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO ERN ND. PLACEMENT OF THIS INVERTED TROUGH
VARIES FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN WITH 00Z GEM HAVING TROUGH A
BIT EAST OF CWA WHILE ECMWF AND GFS KEEPING INVERTED TROUGH OVER
ERN ND. SFC LOW REACHES ITS STRONGEST POINT OVER WRN IA FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN SYSTEM BEGINS TO FILL AS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
MSP AREA AND NW WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCH OF QPF IN SRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA WITH ONE HALF
INCH IN THE FAR NORTH. USING HPC WWD THIS EQUATES TO A THU-FRI
STORM TOTAL OF POSSIBLY 1 FOOT IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN WITH 4-6 INCHES
IN THE FAR NORTH ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
STILL MOVING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING SO 12Z MODEL RUNS MAY
YIELD A FEW MORE CHANGES...BUT OVERALL MORE CONFIDENT NOW IN TRACK
OF SYSTEM. NOW EXACT QPF AND SNOWFALL IS ALWAYS VERY DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT...BUT PRETTY CONFIDENT IN WARNING CRITERIA TO BE
REACHED IN MOST OF THE FCST AREA SO ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...STARTING WED NIGHT IN DVL-FAR AREAS THEN THURSDAY MORNING
OVER NE ND AND NW MN. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY TWO REMAIN THE MOST
QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS AS THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWS. BUT IF THE WESTERN TRACK CONTINUES THE
SNOW AMTS LOOK HEAVIER THAN PREV THOUGHT. AS FOR WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM....FOR THURSDAY THEY DONT LOOK TOO STRONG WITH INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE AREA. FRIDAY WINDS LOOK A BIT STRONGER IN ERN ND AND
RRV BUT MIXED LAYER SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR 30-35 KTS. SO AT THIS
POINT A TRUE BLIZZARD LOOKS IN DOUBT BUT SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW WILL OCCUR.  

ANYONE TRAVELLING THU-FRI MUST STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS AS THIS
STORM SYSTEM TRACK AND PCPN FCST MAY WELL CHANGE.  

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES. LOOKS LIKE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CIGS REMAIN AT BJI-BDE AREAS AND THESE CLOUDS MAY JUST
LINGER THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY IN
MOST SITES AS THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
     NIGHT FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-
     053.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
     NIGHT FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-030-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
     NIGHT FOR MNZ003-029>031-040.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY 
     NIGHT FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-032.

&&

$$
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