FXUS61 KILN 011111
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OUT OF THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY EXIT
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PULLING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR
TO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS TO THE EAST AND
BRING A RIDGE AXIS INTO KENTUCKY BY NIGHTFALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES TO THE NORTH...AN ENERGETIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT WILL BASICALLY SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND A SOUTHERLY WIND TURN EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW IN THE MS/AL REGION. 

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE LOW QUICKLY REACHES
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 0Z THURS. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A STEADY TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR NORTHWEST
CWA AND INDIANA COUNTIES...AND A WARM SURGE IN THE SOUTHEAST NOTED
PRIMARILY LATER IN THE EVENING. BY THURS MORNING...THE LOW IS OUT
OF OHIO AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
KICKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
WRAP IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR AND HAMPER THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LINGERING SHOWER. DAYTIME TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO RISE MUCH. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THEM...ON THE PRECONDITION OF THE SHOWERS ACTUALLY
BEING PRESENT.

TYPICALLY WOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED MUCH ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS WERE
ALL TRENDING DRY. TOOK THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THIS DAY OUT
BUT SAW THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY SHOWER AS VERY REAL...WHETHER OR NOT .01 MEASURES TO
INCLUDE AN ACTUAL PERCENTAGE IN THE VERBAGE FOR THIS DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST MODELS A BIT WARMER WITH SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GFS 
AND ECMWF SIMILAR WITH LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS NY STATE BY 
12Z THU MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVEMENT 
OF UPPER LEVEL TROF THU AND FRI THAN ECMWF. FORECAST WILL TREND 
TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SETTLE INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES ON THU. FORECAST AREA WILL SEE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN 
THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF 
PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A CHANCE OF SNOW 
SHOWERS. ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END LATE FRI AFTERNOON. AS 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 

MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH ECMWF 
MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MORE 
PROGRESSIVE. WILL FOLLOW SOLUTION CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH CONTINUED  
COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE SOME 
OF THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS YEAR.  AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP DRY 
CONDITIONS AFTER FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A FEW 
SHOWERS SAT OR SUN IF THE SLOWER ECMWF TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW 
VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL KICK OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PATH OF STORM. H3 AND H5 WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AFT 00Z...WITH BKN CI EXPECTED AFT 06Z. H8
AND H7 MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH 12Z.

SFC FLOW BACKS TO SE AND E OVERNIGHT. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABUT CHC
OF FOG AT LUK WITH THE SE SLOW. PUT SOME MVFR FOG IN 04-06Z UNTIL
CLDS BEGIN TO WORK IN. THIS SEEMS TO HELP LESSEN THE FOG.

NAM IS THE SLOWEST PUSHING THE PCPN N ON WED. RAN A NAM/GFS
COMPROMISE AND ADDED A TEMPO OF MVFR SHRA AFT 15Z AT CVG.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...PARKER
AVIATION...SITES