FXUS63 KEAX 300952
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM 00Z
STILL SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING...
WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH BAJA...AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GO RATHER
LIGHT...AND ALMOST PUSHED ALL THE CLOUDS OFF TO OUR EAST. DRY AIR ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE AXIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE OUR LATE HARD FREEZE /28 DEGREES OR LESS/ WILL
LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING. 

FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WITH A DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION AS WE SAY GOODBYE TO A RATHER MILD NOVEMBER. HAVE KEPT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE CURRENT CROP OF
GUIDANCE NUMBERS...AND ABOVE ANY OF THE GOING GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ADJUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT MIGHT BE BLOWING OFF THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT
SWINGS INTO TEXAS.

FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED AS THE MID AND SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE FITS
WITH PINNING DOWN THE PATH OF THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT EJECTS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM-WRF IS BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE
SOME PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...BUT CURRENTLY
THIS IS THE OUTLIER AS THE REST OF THE MODELS STILL POINT AT OUR
FORECAST AREA GETTING STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE EJECTING LOW
AND A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. HAVE KEPT GOING FORECAST DRY FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT STANDARD MODEL TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO THE EJECTING LOW
WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LOW MIGHT EJECT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENIC FORCING AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND ADVECTS THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER SEASON THUS FAR ACROSS THE REGION. 

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY.  SIMULTANEOUSLY...SURFACE WINDS 
WILL BACK TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 
KNOTS BY 12 UTC IN RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
01/30Z.

24

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$