FXUS64 KLZK 252322
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE BROKEN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS
...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND BEYOND THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
20Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BOUNDARY...LEADING A
MILD REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...NOW ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST NOTED
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A LIGHT WIND FIELD...AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE LIGHT FREEZE THIS SEASON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
.FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG
TERM. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY
HOWEVER...REASONABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH ACROSS AR SUN INTO MON...WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT...WITH THE
MAIN QUESTIONS CONTINUING TO REVOLVE AROUND AMOUNT OF PRECIP...AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY...PRECIP TYPE.
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SW
CONUS...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THAT CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN CONUS...SRN
MS RIVER VALLEY REGION BY MID WEEK. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS 36-48 HRS AGO WERE
SHOWING...HOWEVER...MUCH SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN TUE AM SOLUTIONS
WERE DEPICTING.
THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
COMPARED THE THE LAST COUPLE SOLUTIONS...BUT CONTINUES WITH AN OPEN
TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
GENERATE LOWER QPF ACROSS AR...AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIP ACROSS THE STATE AS MOST MOISTURE WOULD BE WELL EAST OF AR BY
THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR FILTERED IN. THE SLOWER...STRONGER GFS
SOLUTIONS AS OF LATE SUGGEST HIGHER QPF NEXT WEEK...AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP TUE AND WED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NATURAL STATE. IN ANY CASE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR
HIGHS TUE AND WED. HOWEVER...IF THE THE LATEST...AND COLDER TRENDS
OF THE GFS PERSIST...WILL HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS...AND START
INTRODUCING WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 35 52 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 36 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 32 49 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 36 56 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 36 56 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 37 58 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 35 55 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 33 50 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 36 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 37 57 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 34 54 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 36 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 37 55 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
