FXUS64 KLUB 300600
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...
A TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT HOURS...
AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE FALLING IN VICINITY KLBB...
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG WILL EXIST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
APPEAR TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 5+KT...SO FOR NOW HAVE DEPICTED VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHY OF MVFR THRESHOLDS 06-09Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OFF EAST OF THE AREA. A REMNANT AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AROUND
800MB HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LAYER OF FRONTOGENESIS DECREASES IN INTENSITY.
THE NAM IS CONTINUING ITS DRY BIAS WITH THE GFS SEEMING TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN. POPS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUING TO DIG INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. A 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
BE OVER THE AREA WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY EXTEND TO THE TEXAS...NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON LENDING TO INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER
WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY ABOVE THIS LAYER THOUGH IT IT PROGGED TO BE WEAK. THERE
WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THIS AS
WELL AS AN EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A DRIER SOUNDING WERE
TO VERIFY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT. JDV
LONG TERM...
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO A FASTER MIGRATION OF
THE UA LOW THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED AWAY
FROM IT. THE NAM TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE
ECMWF/GEM/NOGAP SOLUTIONS...WHICH TAKE IT ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE. OTHERWISE...THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SOLUTION FOR
THE INITIAL PERIOD. ALSO...THE NAM HAS FINALLY TREND TO A MORE WET
SOLUTION OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.
00Z TUESDAY THE UA LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF AZ...THEN AS STATED
EARLIER WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. AS
IT PUSHES EASTWARD THE CWA WILL BE RIGHT SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DYNAMICS...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE UA LOW THE 850 TEMPS WILL NEAR FREEZING AOB 09Z
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALOT FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW A DEEP MOIST LAYER ON THE
CAPROCK FROM AOB 11Z TUESDAY THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH DRIER
UPPER ATMOSPHERE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...TEMP PROFILE LOOKS TO BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE...SO A SNOW SHOWER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
CAN/T BE RULED OUT. OFF THE CAPROCK WILL BE DRIER INITIALLY THOUGH
WILL MOISTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
TEMPS LOOK TO WARM TO SUPPORT MIXED PRECIP ATT. AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY THE LOW LOOKS TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA...THIS WILL ALSO BE AOB THE TIME THE TROWAL ENTERS THE WESTERN
ZONES. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SNOW...THOUGH EXPECT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
AOB 18Z A PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE CAPROCK BY THAT TIME. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW BY 00Z THURSDAY TO HELP DRY THE AREA OUT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY...THOUGH
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...THOUGH POSSIBLY ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE
AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WHICH MAKE SUPPORT SOME PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS THE DGEX IN THE LATER PART OF
THE FORECAST...THOUGH DID LOWER MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST.
MEADOWS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 23 47 28 36 23 / 10 10 30 30 20
TULIA 24 52 30 36 26 / 10 10 30 30 30
PLAINVIEW 24 52 28 36 27 / 10 10 30 40 30
LEVELLAND 25 53 26 34 27 / 20 20 50 50 30
LUBBOCK 27 53 27 35 28 / 20 20 40 50 40
DENVER CITY 29 52 27 34 27 / 20 20 60 50 30
BROWNFIELD 31 52 29 34 28 / 20 20 50 50 30
CHILDRESS 30 57 32 45 33 / 20 10 10 40 40
SPUR 34 54 30 40 31 / 10 10 30 50 50
ASPERMONT 35 56 32 43 31 / 10 10 30 50 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/99/99
