FXUS65 KLKN 302322
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
322 PM PST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SMALL THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS RIDGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH
WILL CRAVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOME COLD AIR ON THE WRN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL FILTER INTO
ERN NV BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPS BY THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
ERN NV. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY SO SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER THEY 
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AS THEY 
APPROACH AND MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE. UK AND GFS MODELS ARE RELATIVELY 
CLOSE WITH THE HANDLING OF A BACK-DOOR SLIDER THAT DROPS THROUGH THE 
PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF MODEL IS THE OUTLIER...DROPPING A 
CLOSED LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST 
COAST. WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE PAST 
COUPLE DAYS THAN HAS THE ECMWF...COUPLED WITH THE UK MODEL BEING 
MORE IN-LINE WITH THE GFS...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST MORE 
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. 

THAT BEING SAID...NEITHER THE ECMWF NOR THE GFS MODEL SHOWING ANY 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION 
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WITH THE 
GFS MODEL IS NORTHWESTERLY SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE 
ECMWF MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT DUE THE CENTER OF THE BACK-DOOR SLIDER BEING FURTHER TO THE 
WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING PERIODS OF SHOWERS 
SUNDAY ON INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES STILL 
REMAINING IN THE MODELS...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR QPF 
AMOUNTS. &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY 
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&

$$

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