FXUS64 KFWD 230529 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
EXPECT CIGS AROUND 1000FT BY 10Z. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR CIGS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY 06Z...GOING NORTHWEST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO LOWER THE POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING...ONLY LEAVING A 20-30 PERCENT POPS EAST OF I-35.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 FOR THE MIDNIGHT TO
6 AM PERIOD...AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER WE WILL SEE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT
THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE EASTERN ZONES MAINLY FOR HAIL.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS VERSION. WE STILL SEE
PLENTY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALTHOUGH
THE WIND THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH THESE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAKE LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO OR TWO...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY
SURFACE PARCELS WILL DEVELOP...SURFACE SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES
LOOK BETTER FOR TORNADOES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH TEXAS AREA.
A SECOND...STRONGER...SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORCING ALOFT WILL BE STRONG...BUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE SCOURED OUT A LOT OF THE MOISTURE...AND
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THREAT OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
ATMOSPHERE TURNS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO FORM...BUT THE ONLY LIFT
IS NEAR AND ABOVE 700MB...WITH DRY AIR BELOW...SO VIRGA IS THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AND WE HAVE ENDED PRECIP AT NOON THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH
MORNINGS BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS BY EITHER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ECMWF...OR TUESDAY MORNING...GFS. DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT I HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 73 44 44 28 / 30 50 60 20 5
WACO, TX 60 74 46 51 30 / 30 50 60 10 5
PARIS, TX 56 67 45 48 25 / 70 90 80 30 5
DENTON, TX 57 70 41 43 26 / 30 50 50 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 58 70 44 44 27 / 40 60 60 20 5
DALLAS, TX 59 72 44 45 28 / 30 60 60 20 5
TERRELL, TX 59 70 47 47 30 / 50 70 70 20 5
CORSICANA, TX 60 71 48 50 30 / 40 60 70 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 60 72 47 54 31 / 20 40 60 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
