FXUS61 KBOX 290904
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MAINLY RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SC ACROSS THE INTERIOR HANDLED WELL BY WELL BY NAM/GFS LOW
LEVEL RH FIELDS WHICH SUGGEST SOME CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS NW ZONES...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS WEAK
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS DIMINISH ON THE CAPE
THIS MORNING THEN SW FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH G20 KT
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS.
BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE GT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
BULK OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SNE DURING MONDAY BUT WE INTRODUCED
CHC POPS W ZONES LATE TONIGHT PER THE SREF. GFS/SREF SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN NAM AND PREFERRED IN FAST MID LEVEL FLOW.
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN AS MID LEVEL FGEN AND JET DYNAMICS INCREASE IN APPROACHING
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. FOLLOWED SREF POPS WITH CATEGORICAL
MASS PIKE SWD AND LIKELY TO THE NORTH. BULK OF RAIN IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS BECOMING STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING ON THE
SOUTH COAST AS SW FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY.
SW LLJ WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S INTERIOR TO THE
MID 30S COASTAL.
TUESDAY...A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6 AND -8C...SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN FACT...PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY
CONSIDERING OUR RECENT WEATHER. SHOULD GENERALLY BE A DRY DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S ON
THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S...BUT IT WILL FEEL QUITE A BIT MILDER THAN TUESDAY WITH LESS
WIND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A PRETTY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS IS STILL IN THE DAY 4 TO 5 TIME FRAME MEANING THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN IF THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WHILE ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...AT THIS POINT WE ARE
EXPECTING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL...BOTH MODELS INDICATE WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW THIS FAR OUT INTO A
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. BKN CIGS 3500-4000 FT BDL-BAF-MHT WILL CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING. ISOLD MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF
BERKSHIERS AND MONADNOCKS. DIMINISHING WINDS ACK THIS
MORNING...THEN SW FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH G20 KT POSSIBLE
FMH-HYA-ACK.
TONIGHT...VFR...BUT LOWERING CIGS AND LOW PROB MVFR CONDITIONS IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS NW OF BDL-MHT LATE.
MON...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
SW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE FMH-HYA-ACK.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA WEST WINDS UNTIL MID MORNING EASTERN WATERS...THEN DIMINISHING.
BUT G22 KT IN SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS DIMINISHING BUT SCA SEAS PERSIST OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND SCA WINDS MAY
DEVELOP LATE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. BUILDING SEAS SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS.
MONDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF SCA WINDS WITH G25-30 KT AS SW LLJ
INCREASES AND MILD TEMPS OVER THE WATER SUPPORTS SOME MIXING. SEAS
BUILD TO 7-10 FT OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS DIMINISH WITH 5 TO 6 FOOTERS LINGERING ON THE
OUTER WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH
TOWARDS MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SCA LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN
TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE LATEST IN THE SEASON
THAT BOSTON HAS GONE WITHOUT HITTING 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE BREAK THAT RECORD...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
CURRENTLY...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 33 DEGREES ON THE MORNING OF
12/1 AND 12/2. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32 IN BOSTON IS AROUND
NOVEMBER 4TH. HAYDEN POINTED OUT THAT DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LATEST
OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON... WE DID ESTABLISH THE 3RD
EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS FALL ON OCTOBER 18TH.
NOVEMBER HEADING FOR TOP 10 WARMEST...
STATUS THRU 11/27
BOS 49.0 PLUS 3.6 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.1 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.1 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3 OR 4
FINISH. 2006 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.9 PLUS 4.7 RANKED NUMBER 4 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE TOP
10 WARMEST APPEARS ASSURED FOR MOST OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR LOCATIONS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
232-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ233>235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...
