FXUS61 KILN 251749
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPR
LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF CWFA AND SHOULD
DECREASE SOME IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE FRONT IT REACHES THE ERN
HALF CWFA LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PIECES OF
ENERGY BEING SHED TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ONLY WARRANTS LOW
CHANCE POPS. BUT AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...00Z MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SWINGING A
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL PINWHEEL ACROSS IOWA THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z WHERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER
TO A SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IS SMALL...SO HAVE NOT PLACED THEM
IN THE TAFS. CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. VSBYS
WITH SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
