FXUS61 KBTV 242025
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE AND LOW SUN ANGLE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THE
PREVAILING LOW OVERCAST TODAY - EVEN AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SUNNY BREAKS WILL ACTUALLY BE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON /ABOVE THE INVERSION/...AND ACROSS
S-CENTRAL VT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OR
FLURRIES. CHARACTER OF THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE FINE NEEDLES AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE WARMED OUT OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.
DO NOT FORESEE ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCED
VSBY AT TIMES IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. WITH LACK OF SUN...
STAYED BELOW MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EST THURSDAY... FRIDAY WILL BE WX TRANSITION DAY OVER
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT N AND E AWAY FROM THE
CWA...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SSE GRADIENT TO SET UP AHEAD OF FRNTL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRNT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MEANDERING DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE EAST.
THIS WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM THRU THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
MDLS HAVE SHOWN OVR PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FRNT EVENTUALLY BECM
OCCLUDED...WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN BETWEEN IT AND ITS PARENT LOW.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO AREA IN SW ZONES FRI NGT AND
OVERSPREAD REST OF AREA SAT MORNING. PROBLEM INITIALLY WILL BE LL
CD AIR IN PLACE AT PRECIP ONSET. ALL MDLS HAVE HINTED AT WINTRY
MIX TO START. TEMP PROFILES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/FR RAIN/SNOW
BFR GOING TO RAIN IN VALLEY LOCALES AS TEMPS WARM UP. BECAUSE FRNT
IS OCCLUDED AND VERY SLOW MVG...QPF WILL BE LIMITED...THUS KEEPING
AMTS OF MIXED PRECIP DOWN. BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED BY SAT
NGT...AND WILL EVENTUALLY TREND BACK TO ALL SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CD AIR COMING IN ON BACK SIDE OF FRNT. OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON TIGHT SSE GRADIENT.
DACKS/WESTERN VT SLOPES(HIR ELEV) HAVE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 40-60MPH AND MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY WIND
PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST THURSDAY...AS AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUSION LIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN WIDSPREAD RAIN AND/OR
MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE AREA...ESP NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL TEND TO
TAPER OFF TO SCT SHSN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID LVLS THROUGH TIME...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH VALUES HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER BRISK WESTERLY FLOW. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS CONTINUE ALONG WITH SCT SHSN...ESP IN
FAVORED SNOW BELTS TO THE LEE OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUM
POSSBL.
BY MONDAY MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT ARCTIC FRONT DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE REGION. EXPECT A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS VT...THOUGH MORE
PRONOUNCED ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY TO BACK NORTHWARD INTO ST LAW/FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH SOME
DECENT ACCUM POSSBL. ARCTIC BNDRY THEN CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SHSN/POSSBL SQALLS AND SHARPLY FALLING
TEMPS ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY NWRLY WINDS. TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MANY LOCALES WITH SOME MARGINAL WIND CHILL CONCERNS
POSSBL IN FAVORED COLDER SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY TUESDAY TEMPS TO ESSENTIALLY GO NOWHERE...STRUGGLING UPWARD ONLY
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND/OR TEENS AS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE
THROUGH TIME. REST OF WORK WEEK FAIRLY QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ATOP THE REGION. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH REMAIN AROUND 5 DEG OR SO BELOW LATE DEC
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
LOW CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LATE
DECEMBER SUN ATTEMPTS TO BURN THIS OFF...OTW EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
TO OCCNL IFR CIGS UNDER LIGHT/VRB WIND FLOW THROUGH 00Z. BY
TONIGHT...LIGHT/VRB FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN BR. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT/ERODE TOWARD THE END
OF THIS FCST CYCLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRI THRU 12Z SAT...MAINLY VFR W/HIGH PRESSURE...BUT SOME LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPEC AT BTV/RUT/PBG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
12Z SAT THRU 18Z SUN...VFR W/OCNL MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN AS
OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES AREA.
18Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT OCNL MVFR IN MTN
SHSN...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUE...VFR TRENDING MVFR/IFR IN SHSN/SQ AS UPPER
LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION.
12Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN MTN SHSN...MAINLY
AT THE KSLK TERMINAL.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS/JMG
