FXUS64 KBMX 031116
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...WITH THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE WAY...ALL EYES TURN 
TOWARDS THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST.  
MODELS ARE STAYING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT...INSISTING THAT MUCH OF 
THE CWA WILL BE IN FOR WHAT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A 
MEASURABLE SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AROUND MID TO LATE 
MORNING ON SATURDAY.

ONE IMMEDIATE ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT MANY OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 
RUNS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH
WITH BOTH THE RAIN-SNOW CUTOFF LINE AND WITH THE HEAVIER BULLSEYE
AMOUNTS. OF COURSE...CENTRAL ALABAMA IS SETTING UP TO BE THE
BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW...AND HAVE BROUGHT THAT
DISTINCTIVE LINE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PACKAGE SUGGESTING THAT
AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS MGM AND AUB WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING. MAKE NO
MISTAKE THAT AREAS NORTH HAVE ALL THE MODEL SUPPORT FOR
SNOW...HOWEVER...THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...IT WILL BE HAMPERED BY
THE LACK OF MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW...BEST FORECAST FOR THE SNOW SWEET
SPOT FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
59 AND AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85. I HAVE ALSO STARTED TO
GENERATE SOME FIRST GUESS AMOUNTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...WITH AREAS
MENTIONED SEEING UP TO AN INCH OR MORE...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE EAST POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE ONE INCH CRITERIA. SO FAR...THIS
WILL LEAVE US OUT OF A WINTER STORM WARNING/WATCH...AND WILL
LIKELY KEEP US IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RANGE. STAY TUNED
FOR PRODUCT UPDATES WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

IT IS WORTH ONE FINAL NOTE THAT SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
ARE REALLY HAMMERING OUT SOME HIGHER SNOW TOTALS FOR AREAS IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THESE AREAS...BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE SHOWING DECENT
PROBABILITIES FOR NEARLY FOUR INCHES FOR THE EVENT TOTALS. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THESE FORECASTS TREND OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...GRADUAL 
RISING TO VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  SURFACE WIND WILL BE BELOW 10 
KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

12/SIRMON

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

17/08