FXUS61 KAKQ 150739
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
239 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
QUITE MILD TO START TDA W/ LLVL FLO FM THE SSW AHD OF APPROACHING
CDFNT. THAT FNT TO CRS THE FA FM MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTN. LLVL CAA
WL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT SUNSET AS WNDS INCRS IN SPD FM THE NW. RGN
STUCK UNDER BKN/OVC ST...W/ MUCH LESS FG THAN 24 HRS AGO. WL INCLD
PTCHY FG ERY...OTRW XPCTG CONSIDERABLE CLDNS THRUT TDA...W/
PARTIAL CLRG HOLDING OFF UNTIL LTR IN THE DAY. TEMPS FM THE M40S
TO L50S ERY...XPCTD TO RISE INTO THE M50S TO L60S (USED A BLEND OF
NAM/GFS TEMP GUID FOR HI TEMPS).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LLVL CAA IN ERNEST TNGT INTO WED...W/ A PD OF GSTY NNW WNDS
(LASTING SVRL HRS LNGR NR THE CST THAN INLAND)...A CLRG SKY...AND
SHARP LWRG OF SFC DWPTS (INTO THE TEENS/L20S ON WED). LO TEMPS
TNGT FM TEH L30S INLAND...TO U30S NR CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS ON
WED NO HIER THAN THE L/M40S.
THE CNTR OF THE SFC HI BLDS OVR THE REGION WED NGT/THU...MAINTAINING
CHILLY/DRY WX. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE L20S TO ARND 30...AND HI
TEMPS THU IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVR THE NRN STATES KEEPS DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CNDTNS
FRI & SAT. HIGHS IN THE 40S ACRS VA/MD CTYS...TO U40S/ARND 50 ACRS
NE NC. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR 30.
MODELS CONT TO DISAGREE WITH JUST HOW FAR N MSTR FROM YET ANTHR
SRN STREAM GULF COAST LOW GETS. GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NRN STREAM
DOMINATED WITH FIRST SYSTM SLIDING S OF RGN WITH A SCND LOW DVLPNG
ALONG CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NITE AND SUN. ECMWF HAS A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED SYSTM ALONG THE COAST WITH SCND S/W NRGY TRYING TO PHASE
WITH FIRST ONE. HPC GUID FOLLOWS MORE OF A GFS TREND WITH CHC POPS
SAT NITE/SUN ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. THIS SCENARIO WUD KEEP TMPS WRM
ENUF TO SPRT A LIQUID EVENT ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN AMPLICATION OF
ULVL TROUGH OVR THE WKND...AND PTNTL SFC LO PRES OF THE CST...DECIDED
TO LWR HI TEMPS THIS WKND BY ABT 3-6 DEGS F...W/ GENLY L/M40S
XPCTD AT THIS PT. LOWS IN THE 20S TO U30S SE. WILL NOT STRAY FROM
THESE TRENDS UNTIL CONFIDENCE GETS A BIT HIGHER.
BLO NRML TEMPS AND DRY AIR XPCTD BEHIND THIS SYSTM MON. HIGHS
U30-M40S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST LAYER BELOW 1K FT CONTINUES TO BRING CIGS ARND
3-500FT...WITH THE VSBYS GENERALLY LIFR/IFR THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD REMAIN IN 2-4SM RANGE. ONE THING TO CONSIDER WILL BE STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS AT 950MB. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE STRATUS AND SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE
THE FOG IN THE MRNG A LITTLE QUICKER THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TDA. VFR
CONDS SHOULD DEVELP BY AFTERNOON CONSIDERINY DRIER DOWNSLOPE
(WEST) FLOW ERY THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NW TONIGHT AND WED....AND COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20-25KT WED MORNING IN STRONGEST CAA. OTW...VFR
CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRI. NE WINDS TO THE N OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE AREA BY LATE SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WSW FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTN/ERY THIS EVENING. PERIOD OF STRONG CAA STILL EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THRU WED AFTRN...AND SCA'S CONTINUE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME AS NW WNDS BECOME GUSTY UP TO ~30 KTS. WINDS LOOK TO TURN
NNW AND DROP OFF A BIT BY WED EVENING...BUT WL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
SCA CRITERIA.
HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE N BY SAT....WITH GRADIENT NNE FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS (FOR MINOR FLOODING) RMN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE APPOMATTOX RIVER BASIN (MATTOAX)...AS WELL AS
FRANKLIN...SEBRELL...AND LAWRENCEVILLE IN THE CHOWAN BASIN. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLSAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BKH
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/MPR
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
