FXUS61 KCAR 111934
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
234 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE 
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTH AS
THE LOW MOVES OUT. THIS COUPLED SYSTEM WILL KEEP GRADIENTS STRONG
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW SO BRISK AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO WIND ADVISORY ATTM
AS A FEW GUSTS NEAR CRITERIA HAVE BEEN REPORTED...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.

CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. LLVL
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN ALOFT AS THE HIGH RIDGES OVER.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE NORTHERN ZONES UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED FLURRY AS THE CAA DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUELCH IT.
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS CAA WAS
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT DIURNAL INCREASE TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BAND OF
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW LIFTS ACROSS OUR
NORTH. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING SUNDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE 
AREA...AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN DOWNEAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST...SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LIKE THE KIND OF
SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE AREA
UNLESS A SMALL LOW...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD...
WERE TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. THE
TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY
SUNNY AND MODERATELY COOL DAY SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF PRODUCE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OCCURS WELL EAST OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH POOR CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP A DECK OF SC ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN SITES. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TURN TO MVFR IN A
FLURRY ACROSS NORTHERN SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AS WELL.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY LOWER TO IFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVE IN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VFR ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE VERY SLOWLY IN A MODERATE
SWELL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AN SCA WILL MOST LIKELY BE NECESSARY
FOLLOWING THE GALE FOR SEAS IF NOT ANY REMAINING WINDS BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AREAS OF OCEAN ENHANCED SNOWFALL ARE
A POSSIBILITY OVER THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
OVER LATE SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE OFFICIAL SEAS WITH THE
CURRENT SWANNAM FOR SEAS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE SATURDAY EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS. &&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/BLOOMER