FXUS63 KDMX 262105
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
305 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS 
LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY AROUND SUNSET 
AND A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST 
WINDS TO TURN TO WEST THEN SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE 
PASSES...REMAINING LIGHT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. NORMALLY THIS 
WOULD BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER LARGE AREAS OF 
CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL COMPLICATE MIN TEMP 
FORECAST A BIT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH 
OF OUR AREA AS IT APPEARS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES WILL 
ENSUE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE THICKER CIRRUS MOVES IN...AND DAYTIME 
HIGHS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN 
EXPECTED DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF 
THESE FACTORS LIKELY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CWA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET. THEREAFTER THE 
TEMPERATURE WILL FALL MUCH MORE SLOWLY AS THE CIRRUS MOVES IN. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UPPER 
RIDGING PASSES OVER THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS AS THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS INTO IOWA AS SOUTH 
WINDS PERSIST.  WILL SEE SFC FRONT PUSH ACRS THE FORECAST AREA ON 
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.  
HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE SOME 
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BUT STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
PRECIPITATION AS LIFT IS DIFFUSE AND MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CANADIAN AIR 
FILTERS INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING 
SLIDES THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH BRIEF WARM UP BUT BOTH GFS AND EURO 
ARE INDICATING A LARGE TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY MID 
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.  DOESNT APPEAR MUCH PCPN WILL OCCUR WITH 
THIS SYSTEM AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM KEEPS MOST MOISTURE TO THE 
SOUTH.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON BY DAY 7 
AS THICKNESSES CRASH.  

&&

.AVIATION...
26/18Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD PROGRESSING 
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND CLEARING OUT THE 
TERMINALS BETWEEN 1830Z AT KFOD AND ABOUT 2300Z AT KALO AND KOTM. 
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AND TURN TO WEST AROUND SUNSET...THEN SOUTH 
ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS 
OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...LEE