FXUS61 KILN 230529
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
STRONG SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING IN THE FAR
NORTHERN FRINGE OF FORECAST AREA...WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN AND CNTRL INDIANA. AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN...AM ANTICIPATING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...SO AM ONLY INTRODUCING ISOLATED
SHRA/SHSN IN THE INDIANA AND WESTERN KY AREA. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE FAR SOUTH WITH THE WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP REPLENISHING DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. COMBINED WITH A RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WELL INTO THURSDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE
COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. FELT
IT ONLY WARRANTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER IF ANYTHING DOES
FALL AND REACH THE GROUND IT COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT
SNOW.
OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL
ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR ALL OF THIS TO FALL AS
RAIN.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHERE THERE WERE DIFFERENCES...GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS
WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ENERGY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY
WHEN THE LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD. BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS BRING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. IN A PATTERN CONSISTING MAINLY OF COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS IN THE
20S AND 30S CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY PINCHING OFF TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR FA THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH KCVG/KLUK AND KCMH/KLCK VFR
WHILE BOTH KILN AND KDAY ARE STILL IFR/MVFR. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR
NOT THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY...ALLOWING FOR
KDAY AND KILN TO GO VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL AND
THINK IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO KEEP THEM DOWN AT THIS POINT AND THEN
AMEND IF THEY HAPPEN TO COME UP. AS WE GET INTO A BETTER WAA
PATTERN LATER TODAY...WILL THEN ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LIFT INTO VFR.
MEANWHILE...WAA PCPN OVER INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IS PUSHING
EAST AND COULD SNEAK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF
THE TAF SITES SO WILL KEEP THEM DRY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL
