FXUS61 KCAR 291122 CCA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL THEN
CROSS EAST CENTRAL MAINE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY AND THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES COULD APPROACH
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WINDS AND STRATOCU ARE THE MAIN ISSUES TODAY. STRATOCU IS MOSTLY
IN THE NORTH WITH SUBSIDENCE CAPPING AN UNSTABLE LYR IN THE LOWER
FEW THOUSAND FT. DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL OCCUR IN BGR, BHB AND MOST
OF DOWNEAST WITH WEST WINDS. IN TERMS OF WINDS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GRADUALLY DECREASES DURING SUNDAY AS THE MARITIME LOW
PULLS NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...UNSTABLE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
PERMIT MIXING UP TO NEAR 4000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND H925
WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE FROM NEAR 35 KT TOWARDS 25 KT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE EARLY TODAY WITH
INITIAL HTG WHILE THE GRADIENT IS STILL STRONG. HAVE STARTED TO
INCREASE POPS AFTER SUNSET IN FAR WEST WITH RAPIDLY APPROACHING
SHORTWV.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLDS WILL INCREASE OVRNGT AHEAD OF A S/WV MOVING E FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LKS...FOLLOWED BY OVRRNG LGT SN MOVING INTO NRN/CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA VERY LATE TNGT. SN WILL CONT ACROSS THE N ON MON...BUT
GIVEN THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS E
CNTRL PTNS OF ME...SN OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WILL TRANSITION TO
RN MON MORN AND EVEN MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN ACROSS NE AND N CNTRL
PTNS OF ME MON AFT...WITH ONLY NW AN AND THE ST JOHN VLY PTNS OF
THE FA SAFE FROM EXPERIENCING ANY CHGOVR WITH THIS EVENT BEFORE
PRECIP TAPERS TO OR ENDS AS SN SHWRS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA BY MON EVE. MOST MODELS AGREE ON A MAX 3 TO 5 INCH SN ACCUMULATION
ZONE ACROSS NW AND FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY MON EVE...BUT GIVEN
THE SMALL AREA OF THE MAX OVRRNG LIQ EQUIV QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...
WE WOULD LIKE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WX ADVS ATTM IN
CASE MODELS SHOW ANY DEVIATION OF TRACK OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
RUNS FROM WHAT HAS BEEN INDICATED OVR THE LAST FEW RUNS.

AFT THIS EVENT...MODELS AGREE ON RELATIVELY COLD AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...SPCLY NRN AND WRN AREAS AS SC CLD CVR AND OFF AND ON
SN SHWRS AFFECT THE AREAS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK MID/UPPER LVL S/WVS
CROSS THE REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF LLVL COLD ADVCN.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVCN SN SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AFT TUE EVE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST MID/UPPER LVL S/WV CROSSES THE
REGION. ANOTHER S/WV FROM E CNTRL CAN MAY BRING NRN PTNS OF THE FA
A BRIEF PD OF WARM ADVCN SN SHWRS ON WED BEFORE A SRN S/WV HOSTS A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TRACKING NE FROM THE S CNTRL AND SE STATES
BEGINS TO APCH THE FA LATE WED NGT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...SGNFCNT SNFL MAY OCCUR OVR INTERIOR
WRN AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU INTO THU EVE...WITH SRN AND ERN
PTNS MORE LIKELY TO WARM BASED ON CURRENT 00Z LONG RANGE OPNL
GFS/ECMWF/CANGEM MODEL TRACKS FOR SN. OPNL MODEL TRACKS FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF 00Z INDIVIDUAL ENS MEMBERS
AND THE GFS ENS MEAN TRACK OF THIS LOW...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL
INDIVIDUAL ENS MEMEBERS ARE SHOWING A MORE INLAND TRACK OF THIS
LOW AS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS THAT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT IF NRN STREAM UPPER JET ENERGY PHASES/MERGES WITH THE SRN S/WV
AS IT MOVES NE OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE
SRN S/WV IS TRAVERSING...THE PHASING SCENARIO THAT WOULD RESULT IN
A MORE INLAND WWRD TRACK OF THU'S LOW APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM. 
IN ANY EVENT...BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLDER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE ON TAP FOR FOR THE REGION FRI AND SAT WITH TYPICAL SC CLD CVR
AND SCT SN SHWRS FOR NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREDOMINATELY INTI ALLY...SOME MVFR CIGS JUST UNDER 3 KFT AT
TIMES IN NORTH SUNDAY AM. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH 35
KTS AT FL020 EARLY SUNDAY. VFR WILL CONT THRU SUN EVE...WITH NRN
TAF SITES FIRST TRANSITIONING TO MVFR/IFR IN LGT SN LATE SUN NGT.
NRN TAF SITES SHOULD CONT IFR IN SN OR MIXED PRECIP MON WHILE
DOWNEAST SITES BECOME MVFR IN RN. DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR MON NGT AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR.
AFTR ALL SITES ARE VFR WED INTO WED NGT...ALL SITES MAY LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR FROM SW TO NE LATE WED NGT INTO THU DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING DAY. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD END
SUNDAY EVENING. AFT A BRIEF BREAK THRU SUN NGT...SCA CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY RETURN ON MON AS WINDS AND WVS INCREASE FROM THE S
AHEAD OF LOW PRES APCH FROM XTRM SW QB. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR MON NGT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRES MOVING E THRU THE MARITIMES. WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE SCA RANGE INTO TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING TUE NGT INTO
WED. NEXT CHC OF MARINE HDLNS WILL BE LATE WED NGT THRU THU WITH
THE HDLN INTENSITY DEPENDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL
LOW APCHG FROM THE MID ATLC STATES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TODAY FOR ANZ050-052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/VJN