FXUS61 KILN 022348
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ENTERED IN NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MAKE
A RUN UP INTERSTATE 71 TONIGHT. HAVE ALREADY SEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THINGS MAY BE MORE SHOWERY THAN
STEADY AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...AS THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT MOVES ON
NORTH OF THE LOW.
SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (THOUGH PROBABLY NOT BONA-FIDE
CONVECTION) SNEAKING INTO THE PORTSMOUTH AREA AS THE LOW PASSES BY
TO THE NORTH. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT MAY
SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT.
TEMP CURVE OVERNIGHT IS NOT QUITE DIURNAL...KEEPING THINGS ROUGHLY
STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...HELPING TO QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES PROBABLY
WILL NOT GO TOO FAR FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE DAY. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES WERE...FRANKLY...NOT TERRIBLY SUPPORTIVE OF
MUCH TRANSITION TO SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY HAVE KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR UP A BIT BY
FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING...SHOULD SEE CHILLY LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE UP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS POINT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW CURRENTLY JUST SE OF SDF WILL TRACK TO NEAR CVG/LUK OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THEN TO JUST WEST OF CMH BY 03Z. WINDS WILL
VARY BTWN SE AND N THROUGH THIS TIME DEPENDING ON POSITION OF
TERMINALS W/ RESPECT TO LOW TRACK. LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT ALL
LOCATIONS WITH OCCL GUSTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 20KT.
WHILE MAJORITY OF PRECIP HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA...STILL
SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCCL
IFR CONDITIONS. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE LOW PASSES BY. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
06Z WITH INCREASING WINDS...BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL
