FXUS65 KGJT 300112
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
612 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

.UPDATE...

RECEIVED A CALL FROM THE ARCHULETA EMERGENCY MANAGER REGARDING
DENSE FOG OBSERVED ALONG HIGHWAY 84 EXTENDING FROM THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PAGOSA SPRINGS. CLEAR SKIES AND
LITTLE OR NO WIND EXPECTED...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE...THEREFORE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION DOVE A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS SNOWFALL FOR OUR SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. GENERAL REPORTS VARIED FROM A TRACE
UP TO 5 INCHES...WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. MOST ACTIVITY HAS COME
TO AN END OUTSIDE A SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.  THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BASICALLY FALLEN INTO THE COL REGION BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS NORTH AND SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR
EAST AND WEST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. NEW SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
OUT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. STILL...NO MAJOR
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW ACROSS ERN UT/WRN
CO THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLDEST AIR WILL DROP INTO A BROAD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...AND GENERALLY STAY EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
12Z NAM AND 12Z ECWMF INDICATE A COMPACT DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN WED-WED NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY REFLECTED IN 
THE GFS. SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR AREA. OTHER SMALL 
DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP A PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
PRECIP FOR MAINLY THE NRN MTNS THROUGH FRI...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE 
DRY WEATHER WED-FRI WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH A COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE
NRN PACIFIC AND WESTERN N. AMER NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...AND A LACK
OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. IN GENERAL...THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECWMF MODELS INDICATE SOME FORM OF TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN USA AS NERN PAC ENERGY DROPS INTO SWRN CANADA AND
THE PAC NW...WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT STORM ABOUT NEXT
SUNDAY...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE STILL LOW...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF INCREASING POPS NEXT WEEKEND BUT KEEP THE WORDING IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORIES STILL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ023.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......NL
SHORT TERM...JDC 
LONG TERM....JAD
AVIATION.....JDC