FXUS64 KSJT 271137
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
537 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 22 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...PLAN FOR MAINLY SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
23/HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
SHORT TERM...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH...GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP MAINTAIN ENOUGH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.
MEANWHILE...MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
23/HUBER
LONG TERM...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THE LONG TERM ONE IS
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND THE PATH OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE 12Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THE 12Z GFS...FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH THE FASTER GFS FROPA TIMING...WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12-15Z...THE CONCHO
VALLEY BETWEEN 15-18Z AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL WITH FROPA.
THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON SATURDAY AND THEN DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA REGION
BEFORE MOVING EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTHEAST OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS
ARE DIFFERING ON HOW COLD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE...ATTM THINK
A COLDER SOLUTION IS THE BEST BET...SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY RAIN MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE MODELS
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 70 48 73 51 55 / 10 10 10 10 30
SAN ANGELO 69 46 74 52 61 / 10 10 10 10 30
JUNCTION 67 46 74 52 66 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
