FXUS63 KDLH 282123
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA REMAINS IN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR. A FAST
FLOW OF LOW-AMPLIDUDE WAVES AND OCCASIONAL MINOR CUT-OFFS IS
BRINGING A DEEP COLUMN OF AIR FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS
WRINGING OUT ITS MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
BACKING OF THE FLOW BY THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HEAT OF CONDENSATION
DRIES AND WARMS THE AIR THAT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FLOW...NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MANITOBA
LAKES...A STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED. COLD AIR BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...BROUGHT SHALLOW
AND NOT VERY COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING THROUGH
CHICAGO. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO OUR AREA AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE MANITOBA LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SCANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WARMING MAY RESULT IN FLURRIES OR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER
FLURRIES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW...MOVING OVER EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK...WILL BRING ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF DULUTH AS MORE WARM AIR
TRIES TO GET INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTH OF DULUTH...
FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED WARMING TUESDAY. THIS LAST LOW MAY BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO MOVE A LARGER AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FROM NORTHWESTERN
CANADA SLOWLY TOWARD OUR AREA AFTER IT MOVES EAST OF THE MANITOBA
LAKES AND TOWARD HUDSON BAY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
.EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A PATTERN
CHANGE WITH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND LITTLE MOISTURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER WITH LAKE/AIR DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN 12C AND
20C ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PROBABLE
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...11/28/18Z ISSUANCE...
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TOMORROW. THE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. CIG HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE VFR/HIGH MVFR
VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 29 34 25 36 / 40 10 10 10
INL 24 31 19 32 / 40 20 10 30
BRD 27 34 23 37 / 30 10 10 10
HYR 27 34 21 37 / 20 10 10 10
ASX 31 34 24 36 / 50 40 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
EOM/BERDES
