FXUS61 KBTV 301731
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1230 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY. AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST MONDAY...SFC LOW /999MB/ HAS MOVED EWD INTO NWRN
MAINE AS OF 14Z...ALLOWING A SFC COLD FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL VT. NWLY WIND SHIFT IS BRINGING
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND
THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL...PER OBS AT
KMSS...KFSO...SPOTTER REPORTS...AND SEVERAL WEATHER CAMS IN THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO THE POST-FRONTAL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
LIVED...ONLY 1-2 HRS IN MOST SPOTS. BY NOON...ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE -6 TO -9C RANGE BY 21Z.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INDICATE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH
2M TEMPERATURES IN THE 32-34F RANGE AND GROUND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL. NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN THIS AFTN...AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLRNG TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO 20S WITH SOME TEENS IN THE ADRNDKS. SFC RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO WEAKENING SHRTWV IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BE MOVG ACRS
THE RGN. MSTR LIMITED...BUT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS AND A CHC OF
SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN ZONES. WITH DEPARTURE OF THIS
SHRTWV TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE
TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE REGION WED NITE INTO THURS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WED NITE AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BTWN MODELS AS TO THE
EXACT TRACK...BUT THEY ALL AGREE IT WILL BE INLAND...WITH THE
RESULT BEING A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
PCPN TO OVERSPREAD FA FROM SW TO NE WED NITE. IT IS PSBL THAT IT
MAY BEGIN AS A MIX...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREENS. BUT AS WARMER
AIR STREAMS IN AT ALL LEVELS...ANY MIX SHUD BE BRIEF. IMPRESSIVE
INFLUX OF MSTR INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS EVIDENCED
BY PW'S CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN
AN INCH OF RAIN...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN RECENT
RAIN EVENT. ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
ON WRN SLOPES OF GREENS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW.
AS THE STORM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
DURING THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT UPPER TROUGH TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING THRU
THE UPPER FLOW. EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD AND A CHC
OF SNOW SHWRS AT TIMES..BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS EXPECTED.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...BUT NOT TOO FAR
FROM SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CONDS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH TIME AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANY
ASSOC LIGHT -SHRASN SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS WELL. CIGS TO
TREND FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR MOST AREAS AFTER 03Z OR SO AS MOISTURE
THINS AND NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY ABATES. THEN SCT/BKN VFR
CIGS AFT 12Z AS FLOW BACKS TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE FEATURE MAY SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHSN AND/OR SPRINKLES AT
THE NRN NY TERMINALS DURING THESE LATTER PERIODS...BUT ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
DACKS.
00Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/LLWS POSSBL.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY
NRN MTNS.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...VFR/MVFR POSSBL IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...JMG
