FXUS63 KSGF 291207
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY BREEZES ALLOWING FOR MILD CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME 
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS 
ONGOING AIR MASS WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY A COOLER NORTHERN PLAINS 
AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  AS A MATTER 
OF FACT...AT 0830Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PONCA CITY 
OKLAHOMA...UP TO KANSAS CITY.  

THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WAS 
DETERMINING TODAYS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT 
PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS WIDESPREAD 
LIGHT QPF...WHILE THE WRF HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON AREAL COVERAGE 
AND AMOUNTS OF ITS QPF.  HAVE BEEN WATCHING SATELLITE AND RADAR 
TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS SUFFICIENT 
LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN.  THE NORMAN AND FORT 
WORTH 00Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE HAS STRUGGLED TO 
ADVANCE NORTHWARD.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN...IF...OR WHERE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION 
MAY DEVELOP...COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES LED TO LOADING 
POP GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.  ULTIMATELY WHAT 
THIS MEANS...IS THAT OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CARRY 20-45 POPS 
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER 
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  IF RAIN DOES DEVELOP...THEN AMOUNTS WILL 
REMAIN LIGHT.

AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY TODAY...A WIND 
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH STEADY TO COOLING 
TEMPERATURES.  EVENTUALLY READINGS WILL FALL ALL THE WAY INTO THE 
LOWER 30S TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  ALL PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE 
EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE 
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY BREEZES.  A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM...WHICH CAN BE VIEWED ON THE MOISTURE CHANNEL OVER THE DESERT 
SOUTHWEST...WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.  THIS FEATURE WILL 
CREATE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH.  THE 
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT 
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.  

THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOLUTION BY TRACKING THE LOW ALONG THE 
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE OZARKS DRY THROUGH ALL 
OF THE WORK WEEK.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS 
TRACK...POTENTIALLY CAUSING LIGHT RAIN TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN 
MISSOURI.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN THE FORECAST WITH THE ECWMF...AND 
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR 
ON WEDNESDAY. 

COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW FOR THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY.  HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S CAN NOT BE 
RULED OUT.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 29/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND OBS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO
GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS WITH IFR CEILINGS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE OZARKS (KSGF/KBBG). CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRYER AIR MASS MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$