FXAK68 PAFC 290047
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
345 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND APPEAR TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUN. 

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA AND WESTERN
ALASKA LINKS UP WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. 
AT SURFACE...A STRONG LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER STRONG STORM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU IS MOVING
TOWARD THE BERING SEA. 

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE GULF STORM WILL MOVE ONSHORE
JUST WEST OF YAKUTAT SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE LOWER COOK INLET TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL END FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AROUND THE SOUND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
MOVING INTO THE BERING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MONDAY. AREAS OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUST WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL IT
MOVES INLAND MONDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A  977 MB LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DEEPEN TO 955 MB OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING
SUNDAY EVENING THEN WEAKEN TO 964 MB OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
MONDAY EVENING. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT INTO
BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY NIGHT. 

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 185. 
         BLIZZARD WARNING 195. 
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...172 175 176 179.
         STORM WARNING...150 155 160 165 170 171 185. 
         GALE WARNING...120 130 132 138 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 138 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09