FXUS63 KDLH 270907
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
307 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND
WINDS IN SHORT TERM. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER FA WITH 3 AM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE
IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD AREAS UNDER CLR SKIES...TO MID 20S IN NW
WIS WHERE A LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 2 KFT HAS LINGERED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND AT THE WRN TIP OF LK SUPERIOR HAS KEPT
THE TWIN PORTS IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 F. IN THE WRN
ZONES...EARLY MORNING READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED FROM THE TEENS..NOT
TO THE LOW 20S DUE TO INCREASING 925 MB WINDS AND LO LVL WAA.

UPR LVL RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASING THICKNESS AND
STRENGTHENING WAA TO WRN GRT LKS TODAY AS THE SFC RIDGE WEAKENS
WHILE PUSHING EAST OVER MI. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS WARM
FROM NEAR ZERO IN SW ZONES THIS MORNING...TO AROUND 8 C BY THIS
AFTRN AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC-850 MB TROUGH. MDLS IN AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE CRESTS THE MID LVL RIDGE AND TRACKS EAST OVER SRN
MANITOBA/ONTARIO THIS AFTRN AND EVENING. NO QPF IS EXPECTED WITH
THE PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH OR WEAK SFC TROUGH OVERNIGHT. 

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE A MENTION OF POPS 
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA 
WHERE THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL OCCUR AS SFC LOWS CRUISE ALONG 
THE CANADIAN BORDER. POPS WARRANTED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS FAVORABLE NW WIND/CAA EXPECTED. 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FINDS A TRANSITION TO COLDER CONDITIONS AS 
ARCTIC AIR FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/ 

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AXIS OF SFC HIGH STRETCHES FROM KCDD TO KROS WITH BKN/OVC MVFR
CLOUD DECK STILL HOLDING AT KHYR AND KDLH. EXPECT KDLH TO
EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT IN NEXT FEW HRS...WITH KHYR HOLDING TIL
EARLY MORNING. MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THIS
PERIOD OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. 

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  26  37  26 /   0   0  10  10 
INL  34  24  35  22 /  10  10  10  10 
BRD  42  26  39  26 /   0   0  10  10 
HYR  36  25  42  23 /   0   0  10  10 
ASX  37  26  42  26 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

GRANING/GSF