FXUS61 KCAR 071019
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
519 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A FRONT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING
AS CUMULUS FORMS AND SPREADS. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD WILL ADVECT FROM
THE WEST IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY
IS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IN AN OPEN WAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUCH AS BGR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL REDEVELOP NEAR CAPE COD TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN WELL TO THE
EAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP IN THE DOWNEAST REGION DURING
THE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY
UNDER AN INCH EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG WITH DOWNEAST COAST WHERE AN INCH
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN A GENEROUS SNOW RATIO FROM QPF. A
SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR TONIGHT WITH REGARD TO LOW TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...BUT CLOUD COVER SEEMS CERTAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE THERE IS
DECENT POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING. CLEARING AND CALM WINDS COULD YIELD
SOME LOW SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS IN THE NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE FACTORED
IN SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LEANED TOWARDS GEMS TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPS NEAR 10F IN THE CROWN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST LATER TUESDAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE LATER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC PROVINCE DRAWS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT NORTH TOWARD MAINE. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE
NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH WILL HELP THE OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
WARM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IS MORE
PERSISTENT. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THE
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH WARM AIR TO POSSIBLY ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION
TO EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. THE OCCLUSION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE DOWNEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH
DOWNEAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION.
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNEAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY...WITH SNOW TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CHANCES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WILL BE DRAWN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN GUSTY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR IN THE SOUTH TO INCLUDE BHB AND BGR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO RESTRICTED VIS IN LIGHT SNOW.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY...WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA EXTENDED TO 15Z AS SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
ON WATERS. WNAWAVE IS DOING A POOR JOB WITH THE SEAS. WENT WITH
SWANNAM AND RAISED THAT A FOOT THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SNOW WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO GALE LEVELS LATER WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING STORM
FORCE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS