FXAK68 PAFC 270130
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA IS BEGINNING TO STEER A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL
BAY IS PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS MOVING
NORTH. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING
SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT THERE DIFFERENCES ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM AND THE EC MODELS
KEEPS IT OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWER
MOVING LOW APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL NOT PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. 

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SLOWLY SWING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH INTO SIBERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

AT THE SURFACE...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AK...A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WILL OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM
AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE KENAI MOUNTAINS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND DEEPEN TO 972 MB SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS SATURDAY. 

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A BROAD TROUGH WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. THE NEXT
STORM MOVING ONTO THE GULF LATE SATURDAY WILL CREATE A NORTHERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING A COLD DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.

BERING SEA...A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A NEW STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. 

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LARGE STORM OVER THE GULF LATE SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OTHER STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN BERING LATE MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING THOMPSON PASS
MARINE...STORM 132 150 155
         GALE 170 172 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09