FXUS62 KMLB 281910
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
210 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...NEXT GULF OF MEXICO LOW WITH CHANCE OF STORMS ABOUT WED...
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RETURN
FLOW WILL START TONIGHT AND VEER TO SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MODIFICATION OF THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS.
LOWERING CIRRUS SHOULD HELP TEMPS BE A LITTLE MORE MILD TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT STILL MOST PLACES WILL BE IN THE
40S...EXCEPT ALONG THE BEACHES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER CLOSER TO
OUR MID 70S AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH LESS CIRRUS AND ONLY A LITTLE
DAYTIME HEATING CLOUDINESS.
MON-TUES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL
BUILD SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK
SO WILL CONTINUE LOWER END POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH 30 POPS FROM
ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FARTHER
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 MON AND THEN
EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE NORTH TUES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT WITH MID 70 HIGHS OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES.
WED-SAT (MODIFIED PREV DISCUSSION)...A VIGOROUS H50 SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN NEARING THE WRN GOMEX AS A SFC LOW QUICKLY TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX. BDRY OVER ECFL WILL LIFT NWD TUE
NGT/EARLY WED AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY NE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST...RETURNING SEWD AS A COLD FRONT WED NGT/THU MORNING.
ADVERTISED BAROCLINIC PATTERN FAVORS GOMEX SQLN FORMATION WITH
STRONG 120KT+ JET OVER NERN GOMEX AND DECENT AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT H50
LEADING TO STRONG MID/UPR FORCING. 50-60KT H85 JET ALSO CROSSES THE
NRN HALF OF FL WED MORNING/AFTN. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER ECFL DURING THIS WINDOW.
LONG TERM MODELS HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURS AND THEN
STALLING OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA SAT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDS THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES THRU 29/12Z...CIGS AOA FL120.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL PUSH EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NORTH WINDS TO ABATE WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW COMMENCING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
FEET OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE LOW DEW POINTS AND RH
VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT. ON SUNDAY THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL ELEVATE MOISTURE VALUES. AS IS
TYPICAL WITH THE MODELS...THIS MAY BE DEPICTED TO OCCUR A LITTLE
TOO QUICKLY AND RH VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35 PERCENT MAY
OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MON-THURS...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS MON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OUT
OVER NRN ECFL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH WED...LIKELY CREATING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDS AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NRN GULF AND INTO THE SE CONUS
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
1-2 FT SEAS MON WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 44 75 50 77 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 45 75 51 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 47 75 54 78 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 47 76 53 79 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 45 73 52 77 / 0 0 10 10
SFB 45 77 52 79 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 49 75 52 78 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 48 77 53 79 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
