FXUS63 KFGF 060826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND 
LATER PERIOD SNOW CHANCES. MODELS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NO 
REAL MODEL PREFERENCE. 

REGION TO REMAIN WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RH WITHIN TROUGH SO OVERALL 
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND NO BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE. 

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AM HAVE RECOVERED UNDER CLOUD DECK AND 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE AS 
CLOUDS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION AND CLOUDS TODAY 
WILL LIMIT CLIMB ONCE TEMPERATURES STABALIZE. BASED ON RUC COLDEST 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN FA AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLIDE 
JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA. COOLER MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS MOST 
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW. 
FLURRIES A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AND 
WILL ADD MENTION TO FORECAST FOR TODAY.  

COLUMN GRADUALLY COOLS INTO TUESDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR 
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THIS ALL HINGES ON SKY CONDITION AND ANY BREAKS 
IN CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WITH 
UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TREND OF GRADUAL 
COOLING. 

CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONSISTENT IN 
PUTTING SE THIRD OF FA ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW BAND TUESDAY. 
ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH WITH SNOW POTENTIAL SO AT THIS POINT WILL NOT 
INCREASE POPS HIGHER THAN WHAT THEY ARE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES LOOKING AT POTENTIAL COLD DUMP TO FINISH OFF 
WORK WEEK. WITH SUB 500 DAM THICKNESS VALUES COULD GET PRETTY NIPPY 
BUT DOES NOT LOOK LONG LIVED.  
  
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND COULD HANG IN FOR NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY NOT SIGNIFICANT AND SHOULD BE 
FAIRLY ISOLD IN -SW. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

VOELKER