FXUS65 KPIH 071618
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 AM MST MON DEC 7 2009

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...TODAY. NEW MODEL RUNS SHOW MOST PRECIP 
SHIFTING TO THE SE TODAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER OVER THE 
NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPS WILL 
NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW 
DEGREES ALSO. STILL SEEING STRONG DOWN VALLEY WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER 
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...SO HAVE INCREASED THE WND SPEEDS AS WELL. REST 
SAME. WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL WARNING TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. HEDGES

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 
TODAY. BULK OF ENERGY HOWEVER IS WELL SOUTH IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
UTAH...LEAVING ONLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN IDAHO. BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD LIE ALONG UTAH BORDER. 
BRIEF SHIFT OF WIND TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY WILL SHIFT BACK 
THIS EVENING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF COLD 
AIR. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK PRECIPITATION 
PRODUCTION IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND THE EASTERN 
PART OF THE UTAH BORDER...BUT AGAIN NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED 
DURING THIS TIME. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TUE AFTERNOON/WED NIGHT MAY BRING 
BACK THE THREAT OF EXTREME COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. SO THIS 
MORNINGS FORECAST PROBLEM IS STILL THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE FORECAST. 
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL WARNING...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN METRO AREAS 
IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET CLOSE BUT LIKELY WILL NOT VERIFY. 
MESSICK 

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES THROUGH THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW MODERATES SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY AS AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES FLATTENS INTO BROAD 
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT 
BASIN. THIS SHOULD SIGNAL A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES 
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING NEXT 
TROUGH INLAND ON SUNDAY...BUT DIFFER AS TO AMPLIFICATION AND AMOUNT 
OF QPF. TREND WILL BE FOR WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND 
EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF 
EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION 
THROUGH TONIGHT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS...AND WILL 
LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ017-019>021-023-
025-031-032.

&&

$$