FXUS65 KABQ 241005
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE 500 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITED INTO WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THESE WILL ENABLE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST MAINLY THIS MORNING. BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING
AND CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW AS THE EXITING LOW AND RAPIDLY MOVING
COLD FRONT KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT. MEANWHILE...MINOR
PERTURBATIONS IN RAPID NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AND THESE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY EVEN
BE SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SANGRES AND SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING THE
CLINES CORNERS AREA. ALL LOCATIONS WILL NOTE FEWER SNOW SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM NW FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT NORTH
TO NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MID LEVELS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WYOMING INTO
KANSAS ON FRIDAY...AND THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY
DELIVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NM FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP
THIS FEATURE DRY AS IT PASSES FOR NOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST AND CROSSES
AROUND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TOO
COLD...BUT IT MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
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&&
.AVIATION...
STORM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING
BEHIND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM ROSWELL TO TUCUMCARI...AS WELL AS FROM
ALBUQUERQUE TO SANTA FE. AREAS MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
SNOW...CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH 18Z WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS FAVORING
THE EAST...INCLUDING KLVS...KTCC AND KROW. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z ALL AREAS. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KTS THROUGH 22Z OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FROM CLAYTON TO
PORTALES. AREAS OF CIGS AND VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z TONIGHT IN VALLEYS AND ON THE PLAINS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOVING
OUT OF THE STATE. WETTING PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
AND FROM ROSWELL TO TUCUMCARI. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
OTHER MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SECONDARY COLD AIR PUSH IS MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SLIGHT WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THAT PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL BE DRY.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC JET. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE 3 TO 4 DAYS AFTER THAT. STILL TOO
EARLY TO TELL AS FAR AS WETTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND WHO WILL
BE FAVORED BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COLD ONE. MODELS THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TAKING THAT SYSTEM ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK.
WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DUE TO THE SECONDARY COLD AIR PUSH AT THE
SURFACE AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THAT
PLACES A PRETTY DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE STATE AND THUS
RESULTING IN SOME STRONGER WINDS.
IT APPEARS THAT VENTILATION WILL LOWER QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY
VERSUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/S RESULTS DUE TO THE LOWERING WIND
FIELD.
CHJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 32 6 31 6 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 -13 23 -12 / 10 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 28 -4 25 -5 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 33 -1 33 -1 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 29 1 30 0 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 33 2 34 0 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 3 33 4 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 44 14 48 14 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 24 -14 19 -17 / 10 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 3 25 0 / 10 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 29 4 25 -2 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 -14 22 -17 / 20 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 19 -9 13 -12 / 20 5 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 -10 19 -12 / 30 5 5 5
TAOS............................ 29 -2 25 -8 / 20 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 34 5 34 1 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 30 6 27 4 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 8 31 7 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 13 34 11 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 18 38 17 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 16 40 9 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 17 39 12 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 11 42 8 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 37 16 38 11 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 44 16 45 12 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 3 29 4 / 20 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 10 33 7 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 30 13 31 8 / 30 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 16 39 10 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 18 44 12 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 31 16 32 13 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 21 3 24 -1 / 20 5 5 0
RATON........................... 27 3 29 2 / 10 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 27 8 30 5 / 20 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 27 10 31 12 / 10 5 0 0
ROY............................. 30 13 33 10 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 33 14 35 12 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 16 36 14 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 32 14 35 13 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 18 38 15 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 32 17 40 13 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 34 19 40 14 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 40 21 45 20 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 42 18 42 14 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 40 22 43 17 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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