FXUS61 KBOX 060850
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  THE HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY 
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE 
RETURNS TUESDAY...THEN A LARGE STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WIND. COLDER 
THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE 
STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THE EARLY
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS COME TO AND
END. HOWEVER...ROADS IN MANY AREAS WILL BE QUITE SLIPPERY THROUGH
EARLY MORNING DUE TO SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE WHERE IT
CLEARS OUT BEFORE DAWN. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BLUSTERY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH. NORTHWEST ZONES MAY DEAL WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN STRATOCU
FROM LATE MORNING ON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES
UP THERE. BLENDED THE NAM AND MAVMOS TO DERIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AS THE RECENT SNOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD MAXES COOLER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS GOING UNTIL 12Z
AS SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXCEEDING CRITERIA IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND COLD MINS. THE
GOOD RADIATORS WILL PROBABLY GET DOWN INTO THE TEENS IF SKIES STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
INCREASE THE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON...HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS FAST MOVING 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE.  BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON WHERE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP.  WE HAVE JUST 
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SNE...HIGHEST NW.  
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS.  SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MAV 
GUIDANCE BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS.  

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SNE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST 
OF NEW ENG.  SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED 
SREF POPS WHICH HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH SECOND 
AREA NW HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS ALSO SUPPORTS SREF SOLUTION WITH LIGHT 
QPF EASTERN NEW ENG.  WE HAVE JUST CHC POPS WITH TIMING MAINLY MON 
EVENING.    

TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH MOSUNNY SKIES AND NEAR 
SEASONABLE TEMPS.    

TUE NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES WILL HOLD PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND 
WEST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.  WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC 
POPS IN THE GRIDS LATE...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL WED.  
OVERNIGHT RISING TEMPS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAIN.    

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF NEXT STORM FOR 
WED WITH INTENSE PRIMARY LOW MOVING NE INTO THE GT LAKES AND 
SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENG.  ECMWF IS MOST INTENSE WITH 966 MB
LOW OVER LAKE HURON BY 00Z WED...WHILE GFS HAS 979 MB LOW IN SAME 
GENERAL AREA.  ALL MODELS ALSO SHOW SECONDARY LOW MOVING INTO NEW 
ENG.  

A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIP IS LIKELY WED ASSOCD WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC 
LIFT AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL.  THERMAL PROFILES 
SUGGEST PTYPE WILL START AS SNOW AS DEEP COLD AIR INITIALLY IN 
PLACE.  EXCEPTION WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE EASTERLY FLOW MAY 
WARM BL ENOUGH PRIOR TO PRECIP MOVING IN.  HOWEVER...STRONG EASTERLY 
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM THE LOW LEVELS ALL LOCATIONS AND 
EXPECT EVENTUAL CHANGE TO RAIN EVEN IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR DURING 
AFTERNOON.  SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ICE POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVELS 
ARE WARMING MORE QUICKLY THAN ALOFT SO THIS LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A 
SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO.  ADVSY LEVEL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DISTANT 
INTERIOR.

WIND WILL BE OTHER CONCERN FOR WED WITH INTENSE LOW TRACKING TO THE 
WEST. ECMWF HAS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WED AFTERNOON.  GFS NOT AS 
STRONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVSY WINDS.  
EITHER WAY...STRONG WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS 
POSSIBLY BECOMING SW BY WED EVENING AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES TOT HE 
NORTH...BUT TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS FAR OUT IS UNCERTAIN.

TIDES...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW FOR WED AND DURATION OF EASTERLY 
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW WED 
EVENING.  THIS WILL LIMIT COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.  

LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY WED EVENING...THEN PRECIP ENDING 
OVERNIGHT.  

THU THROUGH SAT...BROAD MID LEVEL TROF SETS UP FROM GT LAKES TO NEW 
ENG WHICH WILL BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND PERSISTENT 
BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS.  COLDEST DAYS SHOULD BE FRI/SAT AS 850 MB 
TEMPS DOWN TO -15C.  A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME 
TO TIME...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.    

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS ON IT/S WAY OUT TO SEA AND SHOULD CLEAR
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BY 11Z. ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY ON SHOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 KT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 20-25 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED AT MOST EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY...VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH A FEW RA/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND 
ISOLD MVFR.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...IFR LIKELY IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN.  STRONG EASTERLY 
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.  .

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALES WILL SUBSIDE TO SCA LEVELS THIS MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SEAS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY
TAKE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT TO EVENTUALLY COME DOWN BELOW 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH TUE NIGHT BUT WINDS RAMPING UP TO 
NEAR SCA ON SW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT. EASTERLY GALES PROBABLE WED 
WITH WIND SHIFT TO SW WED NIGHT. HIGH PROB OF WESTERLY GALES THU.  
 
&&

.EQUIPMENT...
GLOUCESTER NWR TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR. RTS UNKNOWN. 
WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. JOHNSTON/PROVIDENCE NWR TRANSMITTER
IS BACK ON THE AIR BUT ON LOW POWER...SOME SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THE SIGNAL. MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE DONE ON
MONDAY TO RETURN THIS STATION TO FULL POWER. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE
SEE OUR WEBSITE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...KJC/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER