FXUS65 KPIH 270857
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE A 
SLOW MOVER AND TAKE NEARLY ALL DAY TO GET INTO FAR EASTERN IDAHO.  
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD THROUGH MORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS THAN 
TODAY.  HAVE CONTINUED THE WARM BIAS THAT HAS BEEN NEEDED TO ADJUST 
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER HAVE CUT IT MORE THAN 
HALF.  POP IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES ARE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN 
TODAY...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH EXCEPT ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER 
AND TNE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WYOMING BORDER.  ALSO...NOT MUCH 
EXPECTED WITH WINDS IN SPITE OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION 
TODAY...POSSIBLE LOCALIZED WINDS IN PLACES LIKE SODA SPRINGS.  HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE 
ALOFT...BUT SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATION FOG AT LEAST LATE FRI NIGHT 
AND SAT MORNING.  MUCH WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS 
DROPPED THIS EVENING.  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 
PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS EVEN POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER 
NORTHERLY AIR FLOW WILL MEAN NO STEADY RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS COLD 
AIR REPLENISHES IN THIS FLOW REGIME.  MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY IN THE 
EXTENDED. THE EUROPEAN HAS FAR MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THAN THE 
GFS AND AM LEANING TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER UNTIL TUESDAY. AT WHICH TIME...A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE 
REGION. BULK OF THE ENERGY AND CONSEQUENTLY MOST OF THE 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO 
MENTION LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW...SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES...A DEEP 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THIS TROUGH. DEBATABLE AS 
TO HOW FAR WEST THIS COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OR IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO 
MAKE IT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND POUR INTO IDAHO. THUS...LEFT 
TEMPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS 
DRASTICALLY LATER IF IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD AIR IS GOING TO MAKE A 
STRONGER PUSH INTO IDAHO. 

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION 
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY 
LIGHT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE DAY 
AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE 
SNAKE PLAIN LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE THAT SETTLES IN.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$