FXUS61 KBOX 160833
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
333 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG OCEAN STORM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL
TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING US ANY SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE
GONE WITH THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE TODAY BASED ON COLD ADVECTION AND
MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS...TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL QUITE COLD AFTER THE MILD WEATHER WE EXPERIENCED
ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WERE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND
SHOULD BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH SOME OF THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION LATE IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE LITTLE IF ANY
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ALSO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NH AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES IN FAR
WESTERN MA. WILL CARRY 20 TO 30 POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. HAVE GONE WITH A
15 TO 20 POP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW. WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER-CAPE...WHERE THERE MAY BE A
TOUCH OF OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR A TRUE
OCEAN EFFECT EVENT SO LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED THE COLDER MET MOS UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...
A VERY COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE INTERIOR
HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE WHERE
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW PASSING SNOW FLURRIES
AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE
PROBABLY TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AT LEAST
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE TO CLIMO BIAS.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT/S LIKELY THAT OUR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE
LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEEKEND COASTAL STORM GOES...IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY PIECE OF
GUIDANCE THAT DOESN/T TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA IS THE 00Z
GGEM...WHICH IN FACT DELIVERS SNE A HISTORIC SNOWSTORM LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY. THE GGEM ACCOMPLISHES THIS BY RETROGRADING THE POLAR VORTEX
OVER JAMES BAY BY EARLY SATURDAY...AND THIS ALLOWS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY QUITE RAPIDLY...ALLOWING FOR
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE REST OF THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE IS NOT NEARLY ROBUST...AND THE GGEM IS A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER. WHILE WE ARE NOT FORECASTING A SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT THIS TIME...WE ARE STILL AROUND 96 HOURS OUT SO WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP THE DOOR CRACKED OPEN A BIT FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL STORM COULD COME
FURTHER WEST AND DELIVER A SNOW EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WE CAN
EXPECT PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 THOUSAND
FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BUT IT MAY TAKE SOMETIME. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF MARGINAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR DESPITE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE
BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THOSE THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
30 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED...HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CLOSE A
COASTAL STORM GETS TO NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THIS BY FAR IS THE COLDEST AIRMASS
OF THE SEASON AND THE MODELS ARE OFTEN UNDERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MIXING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...STILL FEEL WILL SEE 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF
THE OPEN WATERS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR SHOULD YIELD
ANOTHER ROUND OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR OPEN
WATERS.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONG SCA TO GALE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT...BEST
CHANCE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GALES DIMINISH TO SCA LEVEL BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN A BIT. HOWEVER...STRONGER
NWLY FLOW WILL PROBABLY RESUME BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL STORM
MOVES WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/FRANK
MARINE...EKSTER/FRANK
