FXUS61 KPBZ 050115
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
815 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY WILL
BRING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE RIDGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR
TONIGHT; BUT LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE RIDGES TOMORROW. GIVEN GFS AND
NAM MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROGS AND PROJECTED MOISTURE SUPPLY,
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CLIP COUNTIES EAST OF
MORGANTOWN.

HAVE THUS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUCKER AND GARRETT
COUNTIES WHERE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED.
ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY BE SEEN AS FAR NORTH AS
PITTSBURGH. THE STORM WILL PUSH RAPIDLY OFF THE EAST COAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND BRING A RAPID END TO THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER, BUT
WITHE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. TRACK AND CURRENT TIMING OF THE LOW ACROSS
OHIO AS DEPICTED BY OPERATIONAL GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES, AND ECMWF
WOULD MEAN AN INITIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIX FOLLOWED BY A
CHANGE TO RAIN. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WOULD THEN CHANGE THE RAIN
TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. 

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. 
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST FROM THIS LOW...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR 
SNOW FROM HLG-PIT-DUJ AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY MGW/LBE.

AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING...ANY
SNOWFALL OVER AREA TERMINALS SHOULD DIMINISH.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING 
A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REDUCED CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON 
AND NIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     WVZ041.

&&

$$

15