FXUS65 KABQ 102221
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MST THU DEC 10 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INVOLVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF NM AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOTES A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE WRN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS COMBINED
WITH PERIODIC CLOUD COVER IN THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY HAVOC TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SPLIT FLOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN UNITED
STATE...PRODUCING ZONAL FLOW FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WEAK/MODERATE PERTURBATIONS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
IT APPEARS THE FIRST WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR QPF WILL OCCUR FROM 03-12Z WITH LINGERING LIGHT PCPN THEREAFTER.
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE CHUSKA AND MORE LIKELY THE
SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A
SECONDARY YET WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CHASE ITS HEALS DURING
THE SAT AFTERNOON PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
MOISTURE...BUT LIGHT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME FROM OROGRAPHICS RATHER
THAN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE THIRD UPPER LEVEL FEATURE APPEARS TO BE A TAD STRONGER AND WILL
TRAVERSE THE STATE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN A BIT
OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLOWER WHILE THE GFS40 IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND
OF THE TWO FORECASTS BUT OPTED TO DELAY PCPN CHANCES JUST A TAD. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE NRN/WRN TERRAIN
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...
HOWEVER OROGRAPHICS COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE WRN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SUB-ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
TO BE LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
DRY NWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR TUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE MODEL PROGS. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THICKER BAND OF CLOUDS RAPIDLY
PASSES. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO CROSS THE AZ BORDER
INTO NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...FRIDAY MORNING A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN CO MAY CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE WIND TO GUST
INTO AND THROUGH THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IMPACTING TERMINAL
KSAF.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
RAPID ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WHISK MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST IS CROSSING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ITS TOO WEAK TO DO MORE THAN THICKEN
THE CLOUDS. COMING PERTURBATIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY STRONGER AND TAP
MORE AND MORE ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE AZ BORDER
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU. A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY ALSO AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 TO 45 MPH IN MANY EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS SATURDAY...
THEN 45 TO 50 MPH ON SUNDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH THE LATE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...
TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND MODESTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF
RIDGING CAN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 7 35 18 39 / 0 5 30 30
DULCE........................... -13 33 3 34 / 0 5 30 30
CUBA............................ -2 36 13 36 / 0 0 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 6 39 16 40 / 0 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 3 37 14 38 / 0 5 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 6 40 14 40 / 0 5 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 12 42 17 43 / 5 5 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 22 53 24 53 / 0 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... -11 28 0 30 / 0 5 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 12 36 15 37 / 0 0 20 10
PECOS........................... 15 39 18 39 / 0 0 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -7 31 0 32 / 0 0 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 5 29 8 27 / 0 0 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 32 10 32 / 0 0 10 10
TAOS............................ -6 33 5 36 / 0 0 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 11 42 20 45 / 0 0 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 13 37 17 37 / 0 0 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 13 37 19 39 / 0 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 41 25 45 / 0 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 22 42 26 46 / 0 0 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 16 44 23 48 / 0 0 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 42 27 46 / 0 0 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 16 47 24 51 / 0 0 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 18 43 25 45 / 0 0 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 24 50 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 19 37 22 41 / 0 0 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 40 21 42 / 0 0 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 16 35 21 39 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 45 26 48 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 29 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 25 46 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 13 39 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 5 38 12 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 17 42 20 43 / 0 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 12 40 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 16 41 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 17 44 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 26 47 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 17 47 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 22 50 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 52 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 23 54 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 24 55 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 27 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 29 55 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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