FXUS63 KSGF 012321
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE MUCH COLDER 
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY SOME 
SNOWFALL...TOMORROW.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 
IN THE MID 50S TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED 
FROM THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA 
WILL ADVECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO THE AREA TOMORROW. MODEL 
SOLUTIONS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT YESTERDAY THAT A BAND OF 
PRECIPITATION WOULD FORM ALONG AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON 
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN LOW.  THE FORECAST TREND HAS BEEN TO 
NUDGE THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC BAND FURTHER EAST 
WITH TIME. THIS TREND SEEMS FAVORABLE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW 
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED TO GO FOR ONLY MINOR 
ACCUMULATIONS...DECREASING AMOUNTS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER 
THE EASTERN CWA.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH AFTERNOON 
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S 
THROUGH FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AS 
THE AIRMASS MODIFIES.  HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 
20S CAN BE EXPECTED.

MID NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 
ANOTHER TROUGH TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE WESTERN CONUS.  
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN JUST 
YET...BUT SIGNALS ARE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF ANY INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH 
COLDER...MAKING WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES FAVORABLE.

KARDELL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN...KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
ARKANSAS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW SHOULD BRING LOWERING
CLOUD HEIGHTS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY NOONTIME WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. 

CLAYCOMB
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$